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hyoga

05012

• moana
  2016

  • the legend in moana is based on the thousand years that passed between the first era of wayfinders and the second. we see the stories kept alive from the very first scene, by the old wise grandmother.

  • ’moana’ directors reveal how the story changed
    hollywoodreporter.com/behind-screen/moana-directors-reveal-how-story-changed-950468

  • how the story of “moana” and maui holds up against cultural truths
    smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/how-story-moana-and-maui-holds-against-cultural-truths-180961258/

  • objectivity and diversity: another logic of scientific research
    sandra harding 2015 9780226241364 not yet read
    “sandra harding has argued in objectivity and diversity (2015), micronesian knowledge about navigation systems has a lot to teach us today.”

05112

• ten thousand years the aboriginies on the shore of the great barrier reef kept their stories alive and accurate, as confirmed by scientists and david attenborough no less. the sea inundated the land and the reef was born, 200 generations ago

• aboriginal memories of inundation of the australian coast dating from more than 7000 years ago
  patrick d. nunn, nicholas reid 2015
  doi.org/10.1080/00049182.2015.1077539

  • Stories belonging to Australian Aboriginal groups tell of a time when the former coastline of mainland Australia was inundated by rising sea level. Stories are presented from 21 locations from every part of this coastline. In most instances it is plausible to assume that these stories refer to events that occurred more than about 7000 years ago, the approximate time at which the sea level reached its present level around Australia. They therefore provide empirical corroboration of postglacial sea-level rise. For each of the 21 locations, the minimum water depth (below the present sea level) needed for the details of the particular group of local-area stories to be true is calculated. This is then compared with the sea-level envelope for Australia (Lewis et al., Quaternary Science Reviews 74, 2013), and maximum and minimum ages for the most recent time that these details could have been observed are calculated. This method of dating Aboriginal stories shows that they appear to have endured since 7250–13 070 cal years bp (5300–11 120 bc). The implications of this extraordinary longevity of oral traditions are discussed, including those aspects of Aboriginal culture that ensured effective transgenerational communication and the possibility that traditions of comparable antiquity may exist in similar cultures.

• the edge of memory: ancient stories, oral tradition and the post-glacial world
  patrick nunn 2018 not yet read

• revealed: how indigenous australian storytelling accurately records sea level rises 7,000 years ago
  joshua robertson 2015
  theguardian.com
  distinctive ‘cross-checking’ tradition helps explain extraordinary accuracy in 21 stories about dramatic sea level rises between 7,000 and 18,000 years ago

  • Reid said while it was impossible to prove that Indigenous oral traditions had continued unbroken over time, its contemporary features gave a clue as to why it may be the world’s most faithful and durable.

    “Say I’m a man from central Australia, my father teaches me stories about my country,” Reid said.

    “My sister’s children, my nephews and nieces, are explicitly tasked with the kin-based responsibility for ensuring I know those stories properly. They take those responsibilities seriously. At any given point in time my father is telling the stories to me and his grandkids are checking. Three generations are hearing the story at once … that’s a kind of scaffolding that can keep stories true.

    “When you have three generations constantly in the know, and tasked with checking as a cultural responsibility, that creates the kind of mechanism that could explain why [Indigenous Australians] seem to have done something that hasn’t been achieved elsewhere in the world: telling stories for 10,000 years.”

• great barrier reef with david attenborough
  david attenborough 2016
  episode 1/3, 21:06—26:09
  bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06vbz1l

  • narrative memory of ancient climate change as the coastal shelf inundated creating what is today’s great barrier reef in australia
    down the generations, the gimuy walubara yidinji people of what is now far northern queensland in australia, have danced a narrative dance telling of the inundation, which recent investigations and carbon dating show occurred fourteen thousand years ago, at the end of the ice age.

    the story is about gunya and the sacred fish, and is part of the law story: “the story starts with gunya going out to sea, he saw a (stingray) in the water, which he thought was a fish, and when he speared it, he actually speared our sacred fish, the stingray, so the fish got angry, and started to rise up, and with his wings, he made the sea rough, and it caused the sea to rise… our story is about the sea rising, and (there) used to be a cliff further out, and past the cliff is where the ocean used to be… and the only way we can keep it alive is through our song and our dance, just to keep that going through our culture.”

• ancient aboriginal stories preserve history of a rise in sea level
  nick reid, patrick d. nunn 2015
  theconversation.com/ancient-aboriginal-stories-preserve-history-of-a-rise-in-sea-level-36010

• human settlement of east polynesia earlier, incremental, and coincident with prolonged south pacific drought
  david a. sear et al. 2020
  doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920975117

  • a major change in the climate of the region, which resulted in a dry period, coinciding with the arrival of people on the tiny island of Atiu, in the southern group of the Cook Islands, around 900AD.
    Findings are published in the paper, 'Human settlement of East Polynesia earlier, incremental and coincident with prolonged South Pacific drought' in the journal PNAS.
    "The ancestors of the Polynesians, the Lapita people, migrated east into the Pacific Ocean as far as Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, reaching them around 2800 years ago. But for almost 1500 years humans failed to migrate any further into the pacific," explains lead researcher, Professor David Sear of the University of Southampton. "Our research gives us a much more accurate timescale of when people first arrived in the region and helps answer some key questions about why they made their hazardous journey east."
    A team of geographers, archaeologists and geochemists from the UK, New Zealand and the US, worked with the people of Atiu, to collect core samples of lake mud, charting over 6000 years of history. Back in the labs in UK and US, the mud samples were subjected to a range of analyses including new techniques for reconstructing precipitation, and detecting the presence of mammalian faeces.
    Apart from fruit bats, the Southern Cook Islands never had mammal populations before humans settled there, so when the researchers found evidence of mammal faeces alongside other evidence for landscape disturbance and burning, it was a clear sign of the arrival of people. Within 100 years the first settlers, most likely from Tonga or Samoa, changed the landscape by burning native forest to make way for crops.
    The team, including undergraduate and postgraduate students from the universities of Southampton and Washington, as well as scientists from Newcastle, Liverpool and Auckland universities, also examined lake sediments from Samoa and Vanuata. Using this data, they found evidence for a major climate change which coincided with the newly established arrival time of the settlers.
    The data revealed a major change in the climate of the South Pacific region with the main rainbands that bring water to the archipelagos of Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga and Fiji migrating north. The result was the driest period in the last 2000 years.
    This led the researchers to conclude that, alongside growing populations, water stress drove decisions to make dangerous voyages, aided by changes in winds that enabled easterly sailing. Soon after the arrival of people to Atiu, the climate changed again. Rain returned to the eastern Pacific -- supporting a rapid (c. 200 years) settlement of the remaining islands of Polynesia.
    Professor Sear adds: "Today, changing climate is again putting pressures on Pacific island communities, only this time the option to migrate is not so simple. Within two centuries of first arrival those first settlers changed the landscape and the ecology, but were able to make a home. Pacific islanders now live with modified ecologies, permanent national boundaries and islands already occupied by people. The ability to migrate in response to changing climate is no longer the option it once was."

  • abstract The timing of human colonization of East Polynesia, a vast area lying between Hawai‘i, Rapa Nui, and New Zealand, is much debated and the underlying causes of this great migration have been enigmatic. Our study generates evidence for human dispersal into eastern Polynesia from islands to the west from around AD 900 and contemporaneous paleoclimate data from the likely source region. Lake cores from Atiu, Southern Cook Islands (SCIs) register evidence of pig and/or human occupation on a virgin landscape at this time, followed by changes in lake carbon around AD 1000 and significant anthropogenic disturbance from c. AD 1100. The broader paleoclimate context of these early voyages of exploration are derived from the Atiu lake core and complemented by additional lake cores from Samoa (directly west) and Vanuatu (southwest) and published hydroclimate proxies from the Society Islands (northeast) and Kiribati (north). Algal lipid and leaf wax biomarkers allow for comparisons of changing hydroclimate conditions across the region before, during, and after human arrival in the SCIs. The evidence indicates a prolonged drought in the likely western source region for these colonists, lasting c. 200 to 400 y, contemporaneous with the phasing of human dispersal into the Pacific. We propose that drying climate, coupled with documented social pressures and societal developments, instigated initial eastward exploration, resulting in SCI landfall(s) and return voyaging, with colonization a century or two later. This incremental settlement process likely involved the accumulation of critical maritime knowledge over several generations.

05212

• combining role-play with interactive simulation to motivate informed climate action: evidence from the world climate simulation
  j. n. rooney-varga et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202877

  • Climate change communication efforts grounded in the information deficit model have largely failed to close the gap between scientific and public understanding of the risks posed by climate change. In response, simulations have been proposed to enable people to learn for themselves about this complex and politically charged topic. Here we assess the impact of a widely-used simulation, World Climate, which combines a socially and emotionally engaging role-play with interactive exploration of climate change science through the C-ROADS climate simulation model. Participants take on the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement that meets international climate goals. Their decisions are entered into C-ROADS, which provides immediate feedback about expected global climate impacts, enabling them to learn about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations. We assess the impact of World Climate by analyzing pre- and post-survey results from >2,000 participants in 39 sessions in eight nations. We find statistically significant gains in three areas: (i) knowledge of climate change causes, dynamics and impacts; (ii) affective engagement including greater feelings of urgency and hope; and (iii) a desire to learn and do more about climate change. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in urgency were associated with gains in participants’ desire to learn more and intent to act, while gains in climate knowledge were not. Gains were just as strong among American participants who oppose government regulation of free markets–a political ideology that has been linked to climate change denial in the US–suggesting the simulation’s potential to reach across political divides. The results indicate that World Climate offers a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed by science.

05312

• resonance vibrations of the ross ice shelf and observations of persistent atmospheric waves
  oleg a. godin, nikolay a. zabotin 2016
  doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023226

  • Recently reported lidar observations have revealed a persistent wave activity in the Antarctic middle and upper atmosphere that has no counterpart in observations at midlatitude and low-latitude locations. The unusual wave activity suggests a geographically specific source of atmospheric waves with periods of 3–10 h. Here we investigate theoretically the hypothesis that the unusual atmospheric wave activity in Antarctica is generated by the fundamental and low-order modes of vibrations of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS). Simple models are developed to describe basic physical properties of resonant vibrations of large ice shelves and their coupling to the atmosphere. Dispersion relation of the long surface waves, which propagate in the floating ice sheet and are responsible for its low-order resonances, is found to be similar to the dispersion relation of infragravity waves in the ice-free ocean. The phase speed of the surface waves and the resonant frequencies determine the periods and wave vectors of atmospheric waves that are generated by the RIS resonant oscillations. The altitude-dependent vertical wavelengths and the periods of the acoustic-gravity waves in the atmosphere are shown to be sensitive to the physical parameters of the RIS, which can be difficult to measure by other means. Predicted properties of the atmospheric waves prove to be in a remarkable agreement with the key features of the observed persistent wave activity.

05412

• long-lost congo notebooks may shed light on how trees react to climate change
  daniel grossman 2017
  theguardian.com

• existing climate change will lead to pronounced shifts in the diversity of soil prokaryotes
  joshua ladau et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1128/mSystems.00167-18

  • Soil bacteria are key to ecosystem function and maintenance of soil fertility. Leveraging associations of current geographic distributions of bacteria with historic climate, we predict that soil bacterial diversity will increase across the majority (∼75%) of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial communities equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. This prediction is possible because the current distributions of soil bacteria have stronger correlations with climate from ∼50 years ago than with current climate. This lag is likely associated with the time it takes for soil properties to adjust to changes in climate. The predicted changes are location specific and differ across bacterial taxa, including some bacteria that are predicted to have reductions in their distributions. These findings illuminate the widespread potential of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.
    IMPORTANCE There have been many studies highlighting how plant and animal communities lag behind climate change, causing extinction and diversity debts that will slowly be paid as communities equilibrate. By virtue of their short generation times and dispersal abilities, soil bacteria might be expected to respond to climate change quickly and to be effectively in equilibrium with current climatic conditions. We found strong evidence to the contrary in Tibet and North America. These findings could significantly improve understanding of climate impacts on soil microbial communities.

05512

• soil carbon

  • depth trends of soil organic matter c:n and 15n natural abundance controlled by association with minerals
    marc g. kramer et al. 2017
    doi.org/10.1007/s10533-017-0378-x

    • Plant residues show carbon:nitrogen (C:N) decreases, 15N isotopic enrichment and preferential loss of labile substrates during microbial decay. In soil profiles, strikingly similar patterns of decreasing C:N and 15N isotopic enrichment with increasing depth are well documented. The parallel trend in organic matter composition with soil depth and during plant residue decay has been used as evidence to suggest that organic products accumulate or develop in the subsoil due to increasing intensity of microbially-driven processing, although no studies to date have verified this. Here, by applying sequential density fractionation, specific surface area, oxalate extractable Fe and Al, C:N and δ15N measures with depth to soils with relatively uniform soil mineralogy (Oxisols), climates and vegetation we show that changes in organo-mineral associations drive subsoil C:N and δ15N and C:N depth patterns more than in situ organic matter decay. Our results provide the first direct evidence that soil depth trends could be driven by mineral association instead of in situ processing.

  • the ecology of soil carbon: pools, vulnerabilities, and biotic and abiotic controls
    robert b. jackson et al. 2017
    doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054234

    • Soil organic matter (SOM) anchors global terrestrial productivity and food and fiber supply. SOM retains water and soil nutrients and stores more global carbon than do plants and the atmosphere combined. SOM is also decomposed by microbes, returning CO2, a greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, soil carbon stocks have been widely lost or degraded through land use changes and unsustainable forest and agricultural practices. To understand its structure and function and to maintain and restore SOM, we need a better appreciation of soil organic carbon (SOC) saturation capacity and the retention of above- and belowground inputs in SOM. Our analysis suggests root inputs are approximately five times more likely than an equivalent mass of aboveground litter to be stabilized as SOM. Microbes, particularly fungi and bacteria, and soil faunal food webs strongly influence SOM decomposition at shallower depths, whereas mineral associations drive stabilization at depths greater than ∼30 cm. Global uncertainties in the amounts and locations of SOM include the extent of wetland, peatland, and permafrost systems and factors that constrain soil depths, such as shallow bedrock. In consideration of these uncertainties, we estimate global SOC stocks at depths of 2 and 3 m to be between 2,270 and 2,770 Pg, respectively, but could be as much as 700 Pg smaller. Sedimentary deposits deeper than 3 m likely contain >500 Pg of additional SOC. Soils hold the largest biogeochemically active terrestrial carbon pool on Earth and are critical for stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nonetheless, global pressures on soils continue from changes in land management, including the need for increasing bioenergy and food production.

• organic carbon burial during oae2 driven by changes in the locus of organic matter sulfurization
  morgan reed raven et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05943-6

  • Ocean Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2) was a period of dramatic disruption to the global carbon cycle when massive amounts of organic matter (OM) were buried in marine sediments via complex and controversial mechanisms. Here we investigate the role of OM sulfurization, which makes OM less available for microbial respiration, in driving variable OM preservation in OAE2 sedimentary strata from Pont d’Issole (France). We find correlations between the concentration, S:C ratio, S-isotope composition, and sulfur speciation of OM suggesting that sulfurization facilitated changes in carbon burial at this site as the chemocline moved in and out of the sediments during deposition. These patterns are reproduced by a simple model, suggesting that small changes in primary productivity could drive large changes in local OM burial in environments poised near a critical redox threshold. This amplifying mechanism may be central to understanding the magnitude of global carbon cycle response to environmental perturbations.

05612

• cascading regime shifts within and across scales
  juan c. rocha et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1126/science.aat7850

  • The potential for regime shifts and critical transitions in ecological and Earth systems, particularly in a changing climate, has received considerable attention. However, the possibility of interactions between such shifts is poorly understood. Rocha et al. used network analysis to explore whether critical transitions in ecosystems can be coupled with each other, even when far apart (see the Perspective by Scheffer and van Nes). They report different types of potential cascading effects, including domino effects and hidden feedbacks, that can be prevalent in different systems. Such cascading effects can couple the dynamics of regime shifts in distant places, which suggests that the interactions between transitions should be borne in mind in future forecasts.
  • abstract Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types of cascading effects: Domino effects create one-way dependencies, whereas hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions. We compare them with the control case of driver sharing, which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections.

05712

• disease

• changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate
  qi liu et al. 2020
  doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab70bc

  • Zhaohua Wu, an associate professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and scientist with the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, and an international team looked at historical data to see how significant weather swings in the autumn months affect flu season in highly populated regions of northern-mid latitudes of the world. They specifically looked at the United States, mainland China, Italy and France.
    Using surface air temperatures from Jan. 1, 1997 to Feb. 28, 2018, researchers analyzed weather patterns and average temperatures over 7,729 days. Simultaneously, they conducted statistical analysis on influenza data sets from the four countries over the same time period.
    Previous research suggested low temperatures and humidity in the winter create a favorable environment for transmitting the flu virus. However, the 2017-2018 flu season was one of warmest on record and yet also one of the deadliest. The Centers for Disease Control reported 186 children’s deaths during the 2017-2018 season. The previous high was 171 during the 2012-2013 season.
    During the 2017-2018 flu season, scientists found that the extreme fluctuations in weather during the autumn months essentially kick-started the flu, building a patient population early in the season that snowballed in densely populated areas given the contagious nature of the virus.
    “The historical flu data from different parts of the world showed that the spread of flu epidemic has been more closely tied to rapid weather variability, implying that the lapsed human immune system in winter caused by rapidly changing weather makes a person more susceptible to flu virus,” Wu said.
    The issue going forward, scientists noted, is that rapid weather variability is common in warming climates. Having a better understanding of those weather patterns may be key to determining the severity of any future flu season threat. If these climate models are correct, there is an anticipation of increased flu risk in highly populated areas. Under this scenario, Europe could see a 50 percent increase in deaths tied to flu.
    “The autumn rapid weather variability and its characteristic change in a warming climate may serve not only as a skillful predictor for spread of flu in the following season but also a good estimator of future flu risk,” Wu said. “Including this factor in flu spread models may lead to significantly improved predictions of flu epidemic.”
    Wu said he and his team are continuing to pursue this line of research with the ultimate goal of creating a model that incorporates both traditional flu indicators on the health and medicine side with environmental factors such as weather patterns.

  • abstract The continuing change of the Earth’s climate is believed to affect the influenza viral activity and transmission in the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk of influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that the warmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic-caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain the deadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017-2018, one of the warmest winters in recent decades. Here we reveal that the widely spread 2017-2018 influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. We demonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can precondition the deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes; and the influenza epidemic season of 2017-2018 was a typical case. We further show that climate model projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue to strengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk of influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in later 21st century.

• antibiotic resistance increases with local temperature
  derek r. macfadden et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0161-6

  • Bacteria that cause infections in humans can develop or acquire resistance to antibiotics commonly used against them. Antimicrobial resistance (in bacteria and other microbes) causes significant morbidity worldwide, and some estimates indicate the attributable mortality could reach up to 10 million by 2050. Antibiotic resistance in bacteria is believed to develop largely under the selective pressure of antibiotic use; however, other factors may contribute to population level increases in antibiotic resistance. We explored the role of climate (temperature) and additional factors on the distribution of antibiotic resistance across the United States, and here we show that increasing local temperature as well as population density are associated with increasing antibiotic resistance (percent resistant) in common pathogens. We found that an increase in temperature of 10 °C across regions was associated with an increases in antibiotic resistance of 4.2%, 2.2%, and 2.7% for the common pathogens Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. The associations between temperature and antibiotic resistance in this ecological study are consistent across most classes of antibiotics and pathogens and may be strengthening over time. These findings suggest that current forecasts of the burden of antibiotic resistance could be significant underestimates in the face of a growing population and climate change.

• global disease outbreaks associated with the 2015–2016 el niño event
  assaf anyamba et al. 2019
  doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38034-z

  • El Niño is an irregularly recurring climate pattern characterized by warmer than usual ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which creates a ripple effect of anticipated weather changes in far-spread regions of Earth. During the 2015-2016 event, changes in precipitation, land surface temperatures and vegetation created and facilitated conditions for transmission of diseases, resulting in an uptick in reported cases for plague and hantavirus in Colorado and New Mexico, cholera in Tanzania, and dengue fever in Brazil and Southeast Asia, among others.

    "The strength of this El Niño was among the top three of the last 50 years, and so the impact on weather and therefore diseases in these regions was especially pronounced," said lead author Assaf Anyamba, a research scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. "By analyzing satellite data and modeling to track those climate anomalies, along with public health records, we were able to quantify that relationship."

    The study utilized a number of climate datasets, among them land surface temperature and vegetation data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA's Terra satellite, and NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation datasets. The study was published Feb. 13 in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.

    Based on monthly outbreak data from 2002 to 2016 in Colorado and New Mexico, reported cases of plague were at their highest in 2015, while the number of hantavirus cases reached their peak in 2016. The cause of the uptick in both potentially fatal diseases was an El Niño-driven increase in rainfall and milder temperatures over the American Southwest, which spurred vegetative growth, providing more food for rodents that carry hantavirus. A resulting rodent population explosion put them in more frequent contact with humans, who contract the potentially fatal disease mostly through fecal or urine contamination. As their rodent hosts proliferated, so did plague-carrying fleas.

    A continent away, in East Africa's Tanzania, the number of reported cases for cholera in 2015 and 2016 were the second and third highest, respectively, over an 18-year period from 2000 to 2017. Cholera is a potentially deadly bacterial infection of the small intestine that spreads through fecal contamination of food and water. Increased rainfall in East Africa during the El Niño allowed for sewage to contaminate local water sources, such as untreated drinking water. "Cholera doesn't flush out of the system quickly," Anyamba said, "so even though it was amplified in 2015-2016, it actually continued into 2017 and 2018. We're talking about a long-tailed, lasting peak."

    In Brazil and Southeast Asia, during the El Niño dengue fever proliferated. In Brazil the number of reported cases for the potentially deadly mosquito-borne disease in 2015 was the highest from 2000 to 2017. In Southeast Asia, namely Indonesia and Thailand, the number of reported cases, while relatively low for an El Niño year, was still higher than in neutral years. In both regions, the El Niño produced higher than normal land surface temperatures and therefore drier habitats, which drew mosquitoes into populated, urban areas containing the open water needed for laying eggs. As the air warmed, mosquitoes also grew hungrier and reached sexual maturity more quickly, resulting in an increase in mosquito bites.

    The strong relationship between El Niño events and disease outbreaks underscores the importance of existing seasonal forecasts, said Anyamba, who has been involved with such work for the past 20 years through funding from the U.S. Department of Defense. Countries where these outbreaks occur, along with the United Nations' World Health Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization, can utilize these early warning forecasts to take preventive measures to minimize the spread of disease. Based on the forecast, the U.S. Department of Defense does pre-deployment planning, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) takes measures to ensure the safety of imported goods.

    "Knowledge of the linkages between El Niño events and these important human and animal diseases generated by this study is critical to disease control and prevention, which will also mitigate globalization," said co-author Kenneth Linthicum, USDA center director at an entomology laboratory in Gainesville, Florida. He noted these data were used in 2016 to avert a Rift Valley fever outbreak in East Africa. "By vaccinating livestock, they likely prevented thousands of human cases and animal deaths."

    "This is a remarkable tool to help people prepare for impending disease events and take steps to prevent them," said co-author William Karesh, executive vice president for New York City-based public health and environmental nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance. "Vaccinations for humans and livestock, pest control programs, removing excess stagnant water -- those are some actions that countries can take to minimize the impacts. But for many countries, in particular the agriculture sectors in Africa and Asia, these climate-weather forecasts are a new tool for them, so it may take time and dedicated resources for these kinds of practices to become more utilized."

    According to Anyamba, the major benefit of these seasonal forecasts is time. "A lot of diseases, particularly mosquito-borne epidemics, have a lag time of two to three months following these weather changes," he said. "So seasonal forecasting is actually very good, and the fact that they are updated every month means we can track conditions in different locations and prepare accordingly. It has the power to save lives."

  • abstract Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

05812

• the future we choose: surviving the climate crisis
  christiana figueres, tom rivett-carnac 2020

  • Stubborn Optimism, Endless Abundance, and Radical Regeneration

  • There is a power to consciously bearing witness to all that is unfolding without turning away, and counterintuitively, you may actually feel better about the situation when you deeply accept the reality of it.

  • You do not have to believe your vision is likely to be achieved, or that the struggle to achieve it is going well, to keep pursuing it.
    Pondering the different scenarios presented at the beginning of this book, you may conclude that we cannot turn this ship around in time, that we are going to crash, and that our vision is unattainable. That thought is not irrational. What would be irrational is to imagine that the reasons for building a better future are therefore diminished.

  • Three centuries ago Jonathan Swift wrote, “Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it.” How prophetic this turned out to be. A recent analysis by MIT shows that on Twitter lies spread on average six times faster than truth, and that truth never reaches the same level of penetration. Social media is an engine for the production and dissemination of lies.

05912

• precipitation

• a 550,000-year record of east asian monsoon rainfall from 10be in loess
  j. warren beck et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1126/science.aam5825

  • Cosmogenic 10Be flux from the atmosphere is a proxy for rainfall. Using this proxy, we derived a 550,000-year-long record of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall from Chinese loess. This record is forced at orbital precession frequencies, with higher rainfall observed during Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima, although this response is damped during cold interstadials. The 10Be monsoon rainfall proxy is also highly correlated with global ice-volume variations, which differs from Chinese cave δ18O, which is only weakly correlated. We argue that both EASM intensity and Chinese cave δ18O are not governed by high-northern-latitude insolation, as suggested by others, but rather by low-latitude interhemispheric insolation gradients, which may also strongly influence global ice volume via monsoon dynamics.

• changes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events at the paleocene–eocene thermal maximum
  matthew j. carmichael et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.08.005

  • •We explore changes in extreme precipitation at the PETM using model HadCM3L.
    •Modelling shows a shift in the frequency–intensity relationship of precipitation.
    •Incidence of extreme events increases by 70% in some tropical regions.
    •Changes in extreme precipitation are often decoupled from mean annual changes.
    •The effects of extremes must be considered when interpreting the geological record.

    Future global warming is widely anticipated to increase the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, but such hydrological changes have received limited attention within paleoclimate studies. Several proxy studies of the hydrological response to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum hyperthermal, ∼56 Ma, have recently invoked changes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events to explain observations, but these changes have not been studied for the geologic past using climate models. Here, we use a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, HadCM3L, to study regional changes in metrics for extreme precipitation across the onset of the PETM by comparing simulations performed with possible PETM and pre-PETM greenhouse gas forcings. Our simulations show a shift in the frequency–intensity relationship of precipitation, with extreme events increasing in importance over tropical regions including equatorial Africa and southern America. The incidence of some extreme events increases by up to 70% across the PETM in some regions. While the most extreme precipitation rates tend to relate to increases in convective precipitation, in some regions dynamic changes in atmospheric circulation are also of importance. Although shortcomings in the ability of general circulation models to represent the daily cycle of precipitation and the full range of extreme events precludes a direct comparison of absolute precipitation rates, our simulations provide a useful spatial framework for interpreting hydrological proxies from this time period. Our results indicate that changes in extreme precipitation behaviour may be decoupled from those in mean annual precipitation, including, for example in east Africa, where the change in mean annual precipitation is small but a large increase in the size and frequency of extreme events occurs. This has important implications for the interpretation of the hydrological proxy record and our understanding of climatic, as well as biogeochemical, responses to global warming events.

• estimating regional flood discharge during palaeocene-eocene global warming
  chen chen et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31076-3

  • “The method we relied on to analyse this global warming is directly inspired by cell signaling in systems biology, where researchers analyse the response of cells to external stimuli and the ensuing signal transmission,” explains Sébastien Castelltort, professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at the UNIGE Faculty of Sciences, and leader of the study, in collaboration with researchers from the universities of Lausanne, Utrecht, Western Washington and Austin. “We are interested in how a system, in this case the hydrologic cycle through the behavior of rivers, reacts to an external signal, here the global warming.” This project focused on an extreme climatic case that was well known to scientists: a warming of 5 to 8 degrees that occurred 56 million years ago, between the Paleocene and the Eocene epochs, also known by the acronym PETM (Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum). Named Earth Surface Signaling System (ESSS) this project is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF).
    Palm trees at polar latitudes
    As early as the 1970s, scientists observed a strong anomaly in the ratio between stable carbon isotopes (δ13C), due to the relative increase in the proportion of the light isotope (12C) compared to the heavy isotope (13C), reflecting a disruption of the carbon cycle, both in the oceans and on the continents, associated with a global warming and its spectacular consequences. Palm trees thrived at polar latitudes and some marine plankton, such as dinoflagellate Apectodinium, normally restricted to tropical waters, suddenly spread across the globe. Geologists use this type of observation as true “paleothermometres,” which in this case show a rise in surface water temperature that has reached almost 36 degrees in places, a lethal temperature for many organisms. Several phenomena are cited as possible causes for this global warming, from the intense volcanic activity in several areas of the globe at this period, to the destabilization of methane hydrates, these methane “ice cubes” that only remain stable under certain pressure and temperature conditions, and which by degassing would have released their greenhouse gas.
    But although the event is known and its causes have been extensively explored, what about the consequences? “The question is important because there is an obvious analogy with the current global warming. There are lessons to be learned from this event, even more so as the rise in temperatures we are currently witnessing seems to be much faster,” Sébastien Castelltort emphasizes.
    Pebbles that reveal the history of rivers
    The Spanish Pyrenees offer sediments that allow us to observe the ancient river channels and to determine their size. As part of Chen Chen’s thesis project, a doctoral student at the Department of Earth Science at the UNIGE Faculty of Sciences, thousands of ancient river pebbles were measured in the field. Step by step, thanks to the direct relationship between the size of the pebbles and the slope of the rivers, researchers were thus able to calculate their flow velocity and discharge. They have therefore unveiled the whole history of these rivers, and that of the spectacular changes that have affected them.
    56 million years ago, the Pyrenees were being formed and their foothills were traversed by small isolated channels in a flood plain where they deposited very fertile alluvium, promoting the development of vegetation whose roots would anchor the soil. Leaving the Pyrenean piedmont, these small rivers then headed west into the Atlantic which was then only about thirty kilometres away.
    The landscape changed completely
    “With global warming, the landscape changed completely. The channel-forming floods, which occur on average every 2 to 3 years and whose flow we have been able to measure, went up to 14 times greater than before when climate was cooler,” explains Sébastien Castelltort. During the PETM, rivers constantly changed course, they no longer adapted to increased discharge by incising their bed but instead they widened sometimes dramatically, from 15 to 160 meters wide in the most extreme case. Instead of being trapped in the floodplains, the alluvium was transferred directly towards the ocean, and the vegetation seemed to disappear. The landscape turned into arid extensive gravel plains, crossed by ephemeral and torrential rivers.
    Far greater risks than expected
    Scientists still do not know how precipitation patterns have changed, but they know that this warming has led to more intense floods and higher seasonality, with significantly warmer summers. Higher evaporation resulted in an unexpected increase in flood magnitude. One degree of temperature rise implies a 7% increase in the atmosphere capacity to retain moisture, and this ratio is generally used to assess the increase in precipitation. “But our study shows that there are thresholds, non-linear evolutions that go beyond this ratio. With a ratio of 14 for flood magnitude, we face effects that we do not understand, which can perhaps be explained by local factors, but also by global factors that are not yet incorporated into current climate models. Our study proves that the risks associated with global warming may be far greater than we generally think,” concludes Sébastien Castelltort.

  • abstract Among the most urgent challenges in future climate change scenarios is accurately predicting the magnitude to which precipitation extremes will intensify. Analogous changes have been reported for an episode of millennial-scale 5 °C warming, termed the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), providing independent constraints on hydrological response to global warming. However, quantifying hydrologic extremes during geologic global warming analogs has proven difficult. Here we show that water discharge increased by at least 1.35 and potentially up to 14 times during the early phase of the PETM in northern Spain. We base these estimates on analyses of channel dimensions, sediment grain size, and palaeochannel gradients across the early PETM, which is regionally marked by an abrupt transition from overbank palaeosol deposits to conglomeratic fluvial sequences. We infer that extreme floods and channel mobility quickly denuded surrounding soil-mantled landscapes, plausibly enhanced by regional vegetation decline, and exported enormous quantities of terrigenous material towards the ocean. These results support hypotheses that extreme rainfall events and associated risks of flooding increase with global warming at similar, but potentially at much higher, magnitudes than currently predicted.

• mid-latitude net precipitation decreased with arctic warming during the holocene
  cody c. routson et al. 2019
  doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1060-3

  • relates the history of severe dry periods of temperature changes. Importantly, when temperatures have changed in similar ways to today (warming of the Arctic), the mid-latitudes -- particularly places like Wyoming and other parts of central North America -- dried out," Shuman explains. "Climate models anticipate similar changes in the future."

    Currently, the northern high latitudes are warming at rates that are double the global average. This will decrease the equator-to-pole temperature gradient to values comparable with the early to middle Holocene Period, according to the paper.

    Shuman says his research contribution, using geological evidence, was helping to estimate how dry conditions have been in the past 10,000 years. His research included three water bodies in Wyoming: Lake of the Woods, located above Dubois; Little Windy Hill Pond in the Snowy Range; and Rainbow Lake in the Beartooth Mountains.

    "Lakes are these natural recorders of wet and dry conditions," Shuman says. "When lakes rise or lower, it leaves geological evidence behind."

    The researchers' Holocene temperature analysis included 236 records from 219 sites. During the past 10,000 years, many of the lakes studied were lower earlier in history than today, Shuman says.

    "Wyoming had several thousand years where a number of lakes dried up, and sand dunes were active where they now have vegetation," Shuman says. "Expanding to the East Coast, it is a wet landscape today. But 10,000 years ago, the East Coast was nearly as dry as the Great Plains."

    The research group looked at the evolution of the tropic-to-pole temperature difference from three time periods: 100 years ago, 2,000 years ago and 10,000 years ago. For the last 100 years, many atmospheric records facilitated the analysis but, for the past 2,000 years or 10,000 years, there were fewer records available. Tree rings can help to expand studies to measure temperatures over the past 2,000 years, but lake deposits, cave deposits and glacier ice were studied to record prior temperatures and precipitation.

    "This information creates a test for climate models," Shuman says. "If you want to use a computer to make a forecast of the future, then it's useful to test that computer's ability to make a forecast for some other time period. The geological evidence provides an excellent test."

  • abstract The latitudinal temperature gradient between the Equator and the poles influences atmospheric stability, the strength of the jet stream and extratropical cyclones1,2,3. Recent global warming is weakening the annual surface gradient in the Northern Hemisphere by preferentially warming the high latitudes4; however, the implications of these changes for mid-latitude climate remain uncertain5,6. Here we show that a weaker latitudinal temperature gradient—that is, warming of the Arctic with respect to the Equator—during the early to middle part of the Holocene coincided with substantial decreases in mid-latitude net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, at 30° N to 50° N). We quantify the evolution of the gradient and of mid-latitude moisture both in a new compilation of Holocene palaeoclimate records spanning from 10° S to 90° N and in an ensemble of mid-Holocene climate model simulations. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that a weaker temperature gradient led to weaker mid-latitude westerly flow, weaker cyclones and decreased net terrestrial mid-latitude precipitation. Currently, the northern high latitudes are warming at rates nearly double the global average4, decreasing the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient to values comparable with those in the early to middle Holocene. If the patterns observed during the Holocene hold for current anthropogenically forced warming, the weaker latitudinal temperature gradient will lead to considerable reductions in mid-latitude water resources.

• human domination of the global water cycle absent from depictions and perceptions
  benjamin w. abbott et al. 2019
  doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0374-y

  • Leaving humans out of the picture, the researchers argue, contributes to a basic lack of awareness of how humans relate to water on Earth -- and a false sense of security about future availability of this essential and scarce resource.

    The team has drawn up a new set of diagrams to promote better understanding of how our water cycle works in the 21st century. These new diagrams show human interference in nearly all parts of the cycle.

    The study, published in Nature Geoscience, with an additional comment in Nature, was carried out by a large team of experts from Brigham Young University and Michigan State University in the US and the University of Birmingham in the UK, along with partners in the US, France, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden.

    It showed that, in a sample of more than 450 water cycle diagrams in textbooks, scientific literature and online, 85 per cent showed no human interaction at all with the water cycle, and only 2 per cent of the images made any attempt to connect the cycle with climate change or water pollution.

    In addition, nearly all the examples studied depicted verdant landscapes, with mild climates and abundant freshwater -- usually with only a single river basin.

    The researchers argue there is an urgent need to challenge this misrepresentation and promote a more accurate and sophisticated understanding of the cycle and how it works in the 21st century. This is crucial if society is to be able to achieve global solutions to the world's water crisis.

    "The water cycle diagram is a central icon of hydro science, but misrepresenting the ways in which humans have influenced this cycle diminishes our awareness of the looming global water crisis," says Professor David Hannah, UNESCO Chair in Water Sciences at the University of Birmingham.

    "By leaving out climate change, human consumption, and changes in land use we are, in effect, creating large gaps in understanding and perception among the public and also among some scientists."

    The new diagrams drawn up by the team show a more complex picture that includes elements such as meltwater from glaciers, flood damage caused by land use changes, pollution and sea level rises.

    Professor Stefan Krause, Head of the Birmingham Water Council states: "For the first time, the new water cycle diagram adequately reflects the importance of not just quantities of water but also water quality and pollution as key criteria for assessing water resources."

    Professor Ben Abbott, from Brigham Young University, is lead author on the paper: "Every scientific diagram involves compromises and distortions, but what we found with the water cycle was widespread exclusion of a central concept. You can't understand water in the 21st century without including humans."

    "Other scientific disciplines have done a good job depicting how humans now dominate many aspects of the Earth system. It's hard to find a diagram of the carbon or nitrogen cycle that doesn't show factories and fertilizers. However, our drawings of the water cycle are stuck in the 17th century."

    "Better drawings of the water cycle won't solve the global water crisis on their own, but they could improve awareness of how local water use and climate change have global consequences."

  • abstract Human water use, climate change and land conversion have created a water crisis for billions of individuals and many ecosystems worldwide. Global water stocks and fluxes are estimated empirically and with computer models, but this information is conveyed to policymakers and researchers through water cycle diagrams. Here we compiled a synthesis of the global water cycle, which we compared with 464 water cycle diagrams from around the world. Although human freshwater appropriation now equals half of global river discharge, only 15% of the water cycle diagrams depicted human interaction with water. Only 2% of the diagrams showed climate change or water pollution—two of the central causes of the global water crisis—which effectively conveys a false sense of water security. A single catchment was depicted in 95% of the diagrams, which precludes the representation of teleconnections such as ocean–land interactions and continental moisture recycling. These inaccuracies correspond with specific dimensions of water mismanagement, which suggest that flaws in water diagrams reflect and reinforce the misunderstanding of global hydrology by policymakers, researchers and the public. Correct depictions of the water cycle will not solve the global water crisis, but reconceiving this symbol is an important step towards equitable water governance, sustainable development and planetary thinking in the Anthropocene.

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06112

• the anthropocene generalized: evolution of exo-civilizations and their planetary feedback
  a. frank et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1671

  • We present a framework for studying generic behaviors possible in the interaction between a resource-harvesting technological civilization (an exo-civilization) and the planetary environment in which it evolves. Using methods from dynamical systems theory, we introduce and analyze a suite of simple equations modeling a population which consumes resources for the purpose of running a technological civilization and the feedback those resources drive on the state of the host planet. The feedbacks can drive the planet away from the initial state the civilization originated in and into domains that are detrimental to its sustainability. Our models conceptualize the problem primarily in terms of feedbacks from the resource use onto the coupled planetary systems. In addition, we also model the population growth advantages gained via the harvesting of these resources. We present three models of increasing complexity: (1) Civilization-planetary interaction with a single resource; (2) Civilization-planetary interaction with two resources each of which has a different level of planetary system feedback; (3) Civilization-planetary interaction with two resources and nonlinear planetary feedback (i.e., runaways). All three models show distinct classes of exo-civilization trajectories. We find smooth entries into long-term, “sustainable” steady states. We also find population booms followed by various levels of “die-off.” Finally, we also observe rapid “collapse” trajectories for which the population approaches n = 0. Our results are part of a program for developing an “Astrobiology of the Anthropocene” in which questions of sustainability, centered on the coupled Earth-system, can be seen in their proper astronomical/planetary context. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results for both the coupled Earth system and for the consideration of exo-civilizations across cosmic history

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• sustained groundwater loss in california’s central valley exacerbated by intense drought periods
  chandrakanta ojha et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022250

  • The accelerated rate of decline in groundwater levels across California’s Central Valley results from overdrafting and low rates of natural recharge and is exacerbated by droughts. The lack of observations with an adequate spatiotemporal resolution to constrain the evolution of groundwater resources poses severe challenges to water management efforts. Here we present SAR interferometric measurements of high‐resolution vertical land motion across the valley, revealing multiscale patterns of aquifer hydrogeological properties and groundwater storage change. Investigating the depletion and degradation of the aquifer‐system during 2007–2010, when the entire valley experienced a severe drought, we find that ~2% of total aquifer‐system storage was permanently lost, owing to irreversible compaction of the system. Over this period, the seasonal groundwater storage change amplitude of 10.11 ± 2.5 km3 modulates a long‐term groundwater storage decline of 21.32 ± 7.2 km3. Estimates for subbasins show more complex patterns, most likely associated with local hydrogeology, recharge, demand, and underground flow. Presented measurements of aquifer‐system compaction provide a more complete understanding of groundwater dynamics and can potentially be used to improve water security.

• 32 inches subsidence in three years 2007-2010

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06612

• abrupt cloud clearing of marine stratocumulus in the subtropical southeast atlantic
  sandra yuter et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1126/science.aar5836

  • We document rapid and dramatic clearings of large portions of the subtropical marine low cloud deck that have implications for the global radiation balance and climate sensitivity. Over the southeast Atlantic, large areas of stratocumulus are rapidly eroded, yielding partial or complete clearing along sharp transitions hundreds to thousands of kilometers in length that move westward at 8 to 12 meters per second and travel as far as 1000+ kilometers from the African coast. The westward-moving cloudiness reductions have an annual peak in occurrence in April-May-June. The cloud erosion boundaries reduce cloud at ≈10-kilometer scale in less than 15 minutes, move approximately perpendicular to the mean flow, and are often accompanied by small-scale wave features. Observations suggest that the cloud erosion is caused by atmospheric gravity waves.

• infection dynamics of a bloom-forming alga and its virus determine airborne coccolith emission from seawater
  trainic et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2018.07.017

  • Oceanic microbial interactions affect key atmospheric processes
    E. huxleyi viral infection induces coccolith shedding and emission to the air
    Airborne coccolith emission occurs regularly, but increases during viral infection
    Airborne coccoliths may be key contributors to coarse mode SSA

    Sea spray aerosols (SSA), have a profound effect on the climate; however, the contribution of oceanic microbial activity to SSA is not fully established. We assessed aerosolization of the calcite units (coccoliths) that compose the exoskeleton of the cosmopolitan bloom-forming coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi. Airborne coccolith emission occurs in steady-state conditions and increases by an order of magnitude during E. huxleyi infection by E. huxleyi virus (EhV). Airborne to seawater coccolith ratio is 1:108, providing estimation of airborne concentrations from seawater concentrations. The coccoliths’ unique aerodynamic structure yields a characteristic settling velocity of ∼0.01 cm s−1, ∼25 times slower than average sea salt particles, resulting in coccolith fraction enrichment in the air. The calculated enrichment was established experimentally, indicating that coccoliths may be key contributors to coarse mode SSA surface area, comparable with sea salt aerosols. This study suggests a coupling between key oceanic microbial interactions and fundamental atmospheric processes like SSA formation.

• marine proteobacteria metabolize glycolate via the β-hydroxyaspartate cycle
  lennart schada von borzyskowski et al. 2019
  doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1748-4

  • Whilst the unicellular algae, also known as phytoplankton, convert CO2 into biomass, other microorganisms come onto action when the algae excrete the fixed carbon — either during their life, or when they die — sometimes in mass, as after the so-called algae bloom. Even in surface water, single-cell organisms process many thousands of tons of algae biomass: a central process in the marine life cycle. One of the most important compounds in the ocean is glycolic acid, a direct by-product of photosynthesis that is partly converted back into CO2 by marine bacteria. But here, the picture becomes blurred — the exact fate of the carbon in glycolic acid was unknown so far.
    In order to come to gain a useful assessment of the global carbon cycle, however, the equation must not have too many unknowns. As we know today, too much CO2 influences life in the ocean. Increased concentrations of CO2 in seawater acidify the oceans, disturb the balance between phytoplankton and microorganisms and ultimately influence global climate. In order to understand the consequences for climate change on a global scale, a precise knowledge of the bacterial degradation of algae biomass is indispensable. For this, however, we need precise basic knowledge of the location, rate and extent of nutrient networks in the ocean. So what exactly is the fate of the glycolic acid`s carbon, which globally means substance quantities in the range of one billion tons per year?
    The forgotten pathway
    Researchers do not always have to start from scratch — sometimes there are already known puzzle pieces, they just have to be recognized and placed correctly. One such piece is the ?-hydroxyaspartate cycle. It was discovered more than 50 years ago in the soil bacterium Paracoccus. At that time, the metabolic pathway received little attention and its exact biochemical processes remained unexplored. Dr. Lennart Schada von Borzyskowski, first author of the current Nature publication, is a postdoctoral fellow in Tobias Erb’s department at the Max Planck Institute for Terrestrial Microbiology in Marburg, discovered this metabolic pathway in the course of literature research. “Looking at this metabolic pathway, I noticed that it should be more efficient than the process previously assumed for the degradation of glycolic acid, and I wondered whether it might be more important than originally assumed,” the scientist reports.
    Equipped with only a single gene sequence, he came across a cluster of four genes in databases that provided the construction instructions for four enzymes. In combination, three of the enzymes were sufficient to process a compound derived from glycolic acid. But what was the fourth enzyme responsible for? Schada von Borzyskowski tested this enzyme in the laboratory and discovered that it catalyzed an imine reaction previously unknown in this context. This fourth reaction closes the metabolic pathway to an elegant cycle through which the carbon of glycolic acid can be recycled without the loss of CO2.
    Globally distributed, ecologically significant
    A cooperation with scientists from the University of Marburg made it possible to study the glycolic acid metabolism and its regulation in living microorganisms. “Now our task was to look for the presence and activity of these genes in marine habitats and their ecological significance,” Tobias Erb explains. The cooperation between the Marburg biochemists and the marine researchers at the Max Planck Institute in Bremen proved to be highly fruitful, as the latter have been studying the marine communities near Helgoland for years, in particular the bacterial populations during and after algal blooms. In several excursions on the high seas, the scientists from Marburg and Bremen measured formation and consumption of glycolic acid during algal bloom in spring 2018. Indeed: the metabolic cycle was actively involved in the metabolism of glycolic acid.
    The blueprints of the metabolic cycle also were found repeatedly in the bacterial genome sequences that the TARA Oceans expedition had collected from the world’s oceans over a distance of 10,000 kilometers, with a on average 20 times higher prevalence than all other postulated degradation routes for glycolic acid. Thus the rediscovered metabolic pathway is not a niche existence, but on the contrary widespread. These new findings still amaze Rudolf Amann: “The discovery of our colleagues in Marburg turns our previous understanding of the fate of glycolic acid upside down. Our data show that we have to reassess the cycle of billions of tons of carbon in the oceans.” As Tobias Erb continues: “This work makes us aware of the global dimensions of the metabolism of microorganisms, and at the same time it shows us how much we still have to discover together.”

  • abstract One of the most abundant sources of organic carbon in the ocean is glycolate, the secretion of which by marine phytoplankton results in an estimated annual flux of one petagram of glycolate in marine environments1. Although it is generally accepted that glycolate is oxidized to glyoxylate by marine bacteria2,3,4, the further fate of this C2 metabolite is not well understood. Here we show that ubiquitous marine Proteobacteria are able to assimilate glyoxylate via the β-hydroxyaspartate cycle (BHAC) that was originally proposed 56 years ago5. We elucidate the biochemistry of the BHAC and describe the structure of its key enzymes, including a previously unknown primary imine reductase. Overall, the BHAC enables the direct production of oxaloacetate from glyoxylate through only four enzymatic steps, representing—to our knowledge—the most efficient glyoxylate assimilation route described to date. Analysis of marine metagenomes shows that the BHAC is globally distributed and on average 20-fold more abundant than the glycerate pathway, the only other known pathway for net glyoxylate assimilation. In a field study of a phytoplankton bloom, we show that glycolate is present in high nanomolar concentrations and taken up by prokaryotes at rates that allow a full turnover of the glycolate pool within one week. During the bloom, genes that encode BHAC key enzymes are present in up to 1.5% of the bacterial community and actively transcribed, supporting the role of the BHAC in glycolate assimilation and suggesting a previously undescribed trophic interaction between autotrophic phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacterioplankton.

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• sea level

• constraints on global mean sea level during pliocene warmth
  oana a. dumitru et al. 2019
  doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1543-2

  • The analysis of deposits from Artà Cave on the island of Mallorca in the western Mediterranean Sea produced sea levels that serve as a target for future studies of ice sheet stability, ice sheet model calibrations and projections of future sea level rise, the scientists said.

    Sea level rises as a result of melting ice sheets, such as those that cover Greenland and Antarctica. However, how much and how fast sea level will rise during warming is a question scientists have worked to answer. Reconstructing ice sheet and sea-level changes during past periods when climate was naturally warmer than today, provides an Earth's scale laboratory experiment to study this question according to USF Ph.D. student Oana Dumitru, the lead author, who did much of her dating work at UNM under the guidance of Asmerom and Polyak.

    "Constraining models for sea level rise due to increased warming critically depends on actual measurements of past sea level," said Polyak. "This study provides very robust measurements of sea level heights during the Pliocene."

    "We can use knowledge gained from past warm periods to tune ice sheet models that are then used to predict future ice sheet response to current global warming," said USF Department of Geosciences Professor Bogdan Onac.

    The project focused on cave deposits known as phreatic overgrowths on speleothems. The deposits form in coastal caves at the interface between brackish water and cave air each time the ancient caves were flooded by rising sea levels. In Artà Cave, which is located within 100 meters of the coast, the water table is -- and was in the past -- coincident with sea level, says Professor Joan J. Fornós of Universitat de les Illes Balears.

    The scientists discovered, analyzed, and interpreted six of the geologic formations found at elevations of 22.5 to 32 meters above present sea level. Careful sampling and laboratory analyses of 70 samples resulted in ages ranging from 4.4 to 3.3 million years old BP (Before Present), indicating that the cave deposits formed during the Pliocene epoch. The ages were determined using uranium-lead radiometric dating in UNM's Radiogenic Isotope Laboratory.

    "This was a unique convergence between an ideally-suited natural setting worked out by the team of cave scientists and the technical developments we have achieved over the years in our lab at The University of New Mexico," said Asmerom. "Judicious investments in instrumentation and techniques result in these kinds of high-impact dividends."

    "Sea level changes at Artà Cave can be caused by the melting and growing of ice sheets or by uplift or subsidence of the island itself," said Columbia University Assistant Professor Jacky Austermann, a member of the research team. She used numerical and statistical models to carefully analyze how much uplift or subsidence might have happened since the Pliocene and subtracted this from the elevation of the formations they investigated.

    One key interval of particular interest during the Pliocene is the mid Piacenzian Warm Period -- some 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago -- when temperatures were 2 to 3º Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. "The interval also marks the last time the Earth's atmospheric CO2 was as high as today, providing important clues about what the future holds in the face of current anthropogenic warming," Onac says.

    This study found that during this period, global mean sea level was as high as 16.2 meters (with an uncertainty range of 5.6 to 19.2 meters) above present. This means that even if atmospheric CO2 stabilizes around current levels, the global mean sea level would still likely rise at least that high, if not higher, the scientists concluded. In fact, it is likely to rise higher because of the increase in the volume of the oceans due to rising temperature.

    "Considering the present-day melt patterns, this extent of sea level rise would most likely be caused by a collapse of both Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets," Dumitru said.

    The authors also measured sea level at 23.5 meters higher than present about four million years ago during the Pliocene Climatic Optimum, when global mean temperatures were up to 4°C higher than pre-industrial levels. "This is a possible scenario, if active and aggressive reduction in green house gases into the atmosphere is not undertaken," Asmerom said.

  • abstract Reconstructing the evolution of sea level during past warmer epochs such as the Pliocene, provides unique insight into the response of sea level and ice sheets to prolonged warming1. While estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL) during this time exist, they vary by several tens of metres2–4, hindering the assessment of past and future ice sheet stability. Here we show that during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, which was on average 2–3 °C warmer than pre-industrial5, the GMSL was 16.2 m (most likely, 5.6–19.2 m, 68% uncertainty range) higher than today. During the even warmer Pliocene Climatic Optimum (~4 °C warmer than pre-industrial)6, our results show that GMSL was 23.5 m above present (most probably, 9.0–26.7 m, 68% uncertainty range). We present six GMSL data points, ranging from 4.39 to 3.27 million years ago, that are based on phreatic overgrowths on speleothems from the western Mediterranean (Mallorca, Spain). This record is unique owing to its clear relationship to sea level, its reliable U–Pb ages and its long timespan, which allows us to quantify uncertainties on potential uplift. Our data indicate that ice sheets are very sensitive to warming and provide important calibration targets for future ice sheet models7.

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• massive destabilization of an arctic ice cap
  michael j. willis et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.08.049

  • •Ice advanced 8 km, accelerated to 25 m/day and thinned at a rate of about 0.3 m/day.
    •Bedrock below ice cap is mostly above sea level.
    •Ice is likely mostly frozen to the bedrock.
    •This type of ice cap has not been seen to behave this way before.
    •Ramifications for other polar ice caps and glaciers.

    Ice caps that are mostly frozen at the bedrock-ice interface are thought to be stable and respond slowly to changes in climate. We use remote sensing to measure velocity and thickness changes that occur when the margin of the largely cold-based Vavilov Ice Cap in the Russian High Arctic advances over weak marine sediments. We show that cold-based to polythermal glacier systems with no previous history of surging may evolve with unexpected and unprecedented speed when their basal boundary conditions change, resulting in very large dynamic ice mass losses (an increase in annual mass loss by a factor of ∼100) over a few years. We question the future long-term stability of cold and polythermal polar ice caps, many of which terminate in marine waters as the climate becomes warmer and wetter in the polar regions.

• closure of the bering strait caused mid-pleistocene transition cooling
  sev kender et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07828-0

  • Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) -- the phenomenon whereby the planet experienced longer, intensified cycles of extreme cold conditions.

    While the causes of the MPT are not fully known, one of the most prominent theories suggests it may have been driven by reductions in glacial CO2 emissions.

    Now, Dr Kender and his team have discovered that the closure of the Bering Strait during this period due to glaciation could have led the North Pacific to become stratified -- or divided into distinct layers -- causing CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere. This would, they suggest, have caused global cooling.

    The team believe the latest discovery could provide a pivotal new understanding of how the MPT occurred, but also give a fresh insight into the driving factors behind global climate changes.

    The research is published in Nature Communications on December 19th 2018.

    Dr Kender, a co-author on the study from the Camborne School of Mines, based at the University of Exeter's Penryn Campus in Cornwall said: "The subarctic North Pacific is composed of some of the oldest water on Earth, which has been separated from the atmosphere for such a long time that a high concentration of dissolved CO2 has built up at depth. When this water upwells to the surface, some of the CO2 is released. This is thought to be an important process in geological time, causing some of the global warming that followed past glaciations.

    "We took deep sediment cores from the bottom of the Bering Sea that gave us an archive of the history of the region. By studying the chemistry of sediment and fossil shells from marine protists called foraminifera, we reconstructed plankton productivity, and surface and bottom water masses. We were also able to better date the sediments so that we could compare changes in the Bering Sea to other global changes at that time.

    "We discovered that the Bering Sea region became more stratified during the MPT with an expanded intermediate-depth watermass, such that one of the important contributors to global warming -- the upwelling of the subarctic North Pacific -- was effectively curtailed."

    The Earth's climate has always been subjected to significant changes, and over the past 600,000 years and more it has commonly oscillated between warm periods, similar today, and colder, 'glacial' periods when large swathes of continents are blanketed under several kilometres of ice.

    These regular, natural changes in the Earth's climate are governed by changes in how the Earth orbits around the sun, and variations in the tilt of its axis caused by gravitational interactions with other planets.

    These changes, known as orbital cycles, can affect how solar energy is dispersed across the planet. Some orbital cycles can, therefore, lead to colder summers in the Northern Hemisphere which can trigger the start of glaciations, while later cycles can bring warmer summers, causing the ice to melt.,

    These cycles can be influenced by a host of factors that can amplify their effect. One of which is CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

    As the MPT occurred during a period when there were no apparent changes in the nature of the orbit cycles, scientists have long been attempting to discover what drove the changes to take place.

    For this research, Dr Kender and his team drilled for deep-sea sediment in the Bering Sea, in conjunction with the International Ocean Discovery Program, and measured the chemistry of the fossil shells and sediments.

    The team were able to create a detailed reconstruction of oceanic water masses through time -- and found that the closure of the Baring Strait caused the subarctic North Pacific became stratified during this period of glaciation.

    This stratification, that argue, would have removed CO2 from the atmosphere and caused global cooling.

    Dr Kender added: "Today much of the cold water produced by sea ice action flows northward into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait. As glaciers grew and sea levels fell around 1 million years ago, the Bering Strait would have closed, retaining colder water within the Bering Sea. This expanded watermass appears to have stifled the upwelling of deep CO2-rich water and allowed the ocean to sequester more CO2 out of the atmosphere. The associated cooling effect would have changed the sensitivity of Earth to orbital cycles, causing colder and longer glaciations that characterise climate ever since.

    "Our findings highlight the importance of understanding present and future changes to the high latitude oceans, as these regions are so important for long term sequestration or release of atmospheric CO2."

  • abstract The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) is characterised by cooling and lengthening glacial cycles from 600–1200 ka, thought to be driven by reductions in glacial CO2 in particular from ~900 ka onwards. Reduced high latitude upwelling, a process that retains CO2 within the deep ocean over glacials, could have aided drawdown but has so far not been constrained in either hemisphere over the MPT. Here, we find that reduced nutrient upwelling in the Bering Sea, and North Pacific Intermediate Water expansion, coincided with the MPT and became more persistent at ~900 ka. We propose reduced upwelling was controlled by expanding sea ice and North Pacific Intermediate Water formation, which may have been enhanced by closure of the Bering Strait. The regional extent of North Pacific Intermediate Water across the subarctic northwest Pacific would have contributed to lower atmospheric CO2 and global cooling during the MPT.

07112

• major intensification of atlantic overturning circulation at the onset of paleogene greenhouse warmth
  s. j. batenburg et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07457-7

  • During the Late Cretaceous and early Cenozoic the Earth experienced prolonged climatic cooling most likely caused by decreasing volcanic activity and atmospheric CO2 levels. However, the causes and mechanisms of subsequent major global warming culminating in the late Paleocene to Eocene greenhouse climate remain enigmatic. We present deep and intermediate water Nd-isotope records from the North and South Atlantic to decipher the control of the opening Atlantic Ocean on ocean circulation and its linkages to the evolution of global climate. The marked convergence of Nd-isotope signatures 59 million years ago indicates a major intensification of deep-water exchange between the North and South Atlantic, which coincided with the turning point of deep-water temperatures towards early Paleogene warming. We propose that this intensification of Atlantic overturning circulation in concert with increased atmospheric CO2 from continental rifting marked a climatic tipping point contributing to a more efficient distribution of heat over the planet.

07212

• gulf stream

• observed fingerprint of a weakening atlantic ocean overturning circulation
  l. caesar et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5

  • The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years.

• new simulations question the gulf stream’s role in tempering europe’s winters
  stephen c. riser, m. susan lozier 2013
  scientificamerican.com/article/new-simulations-question-gulf-stream-role-tempering-europes-winters/

• winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters
  yohai kaspi, tapio schneider 2011
  doi.org/10.1038/nature09924

  • In winter, northeastern North America and northeastern Asia are both colder than other regions at similar latitudes. This has been attributed to the effects of stationary weather systems set by elevated terrain (orography)11, and to a lack of maritime influences from the prevailing westerly winds12. However, the differences in extent and orography between the two continents suggest that further mechanisms are involved. Here we show that this anomalous winter cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric waves—nearly stationary Rossby waves—generated by heating of the atmosphere over warm ocean waters. We demonstrate this mechanism using simulations with an idealized general circulation model13,14,15, with which we show that the extent of the cold region is controlled by properties of Rossby waves, such as their group velocity and its dependence on the planetary rotation rate. Our results show that warm ocean waters contribute to the contrast in mid-latitude winter temperatures between eastern and western continental boundaries not only by warming western boundaries, but also by cooling eastern boundaries.

• is the gulf stream responsible for europe’s mild winters?
  r. seager et al. 2002
  doi.org/10.1256/qj.01.128

  • Is the transport of heat northward by the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift, and its subsequent release into the midlatitude westerlies, the reason why Europe’s winters are so much milder than those of eastern North America and other places at the same latitude? Here, it is shown that the principal cause of this temperature difference is advection by the mean winds. South‐westerlies bring warm maritime air into Europe and north‐westerlies bring frigid continental air into north‐eastern North America. Further, analysis of the ocean surface heat budget shows that the majority of the heat released during winter from the ocean to the atmosphere is accounted for by the seasonal release of heat previously absorbed and not by ocean heat‐flux convergence. Therefore, the existence of the winter temperature contrast between western Europe and eastern North America does not require a dynamical ocean. Two experiments with an atmospheric general‐circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer confirm this conclusion. The difference in winter temperatures across the North Atlantic, and the difference between western Europe and western North America, is essentially the same in these models whether or not the movement of heat by the ocean is accounted for. In an additional experiment with no mountains, the flow across the ocean is more zonal, western Europe is cooled, the trough east of the Rockies is weakened and the cold of north‐eastern North America is ameliorated. In all experiments the west coast of Europe is warmer than the west coast of North America at the same latitude whether or not ocean heat transport is accounted for. In summary the deviations from zonal symmetry of winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere are fundamentally caused by the atmospheric circulation interacting with the oceanic mixed layer.

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• complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections
  niklas boers et al. 2019
  doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0872-x

  • Extreme rainfall -- defined as the top five percent of rainy days -- often forms a pattern at the local level, for example tracking across Europe. But new research, published today in Nature, reveals that there are also larger-scale global patterns to extreme rainfall events.

    These patterns connect through the atmosphere rather than over land -- for example, extreme rainfall in Europe can precede extreme rainfall in India by around five days, without extreme rain in the countries in between.

    The research, led by a team at Imperial College London and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, could help better predict when and where extreme rainfall events will occur around the world. The insights can be used to test and improve global climate models, leading to better predictions.

    The study additionally provides a 'baseline' for climate change studies. By knowing how the atmosphere behaves to create patterns of extreme rainfall events, scientists will be able to gain new insights into changes that may be caused by global warming.

    Lead author Dr Niklas Boers, from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Grantham Institute -- Climate Change and Environment at Imperial, said: "Uncovering this global pattern of connections in the data can improve weather and climate models.

    This is especially true for the emerging picture of couplings between the tropics and the European and North American regions and their consequences for extreme rainfall.

    "This finding could also help us understand the connections between different monsoon systems and extreme events within them. I hope that our results will, in the long term, help to predict extreme rainfall and associated flash floods and landslides in northeast Pakistan, north India and Nepal. There have been several such hazards in recent years, with devastating consequences in these regions, such as the 2010 Pakistan flood."

    To find patterns in extreme rainfall events, the team developed a new method rooted in complex system theory to study high-resolution satellite data of rainfall. The data comes from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and covers the region between 50? North and South since 1998.

    By breaking the globe into a grid, the team could see where events occurred and determine how 'synchronous' they were -- a statistical measure that assesses connections even if the events did not occur at exactly the same time.

    The results from this 'complex network' model, analysed using our understanding of the motion of the atmosphere, revealed a possible mechanism for how the events were connected. The patterns appear to be created by Rossby waves -- wiggles in fast-flowing currents of air high in the atmosphere, known as the jet streams.

    Rossby waves have been connected to regular rainfall, but this study is the first to connect them to extreme rainfall event patterns. Co-author Professor Brian Hoskins, Chair of the Grantham Institute at Imperial, said: "The new technique applied to satellite data shows very surprising relationships between extreme rainfall events in different regions around the world.

    "For example, extreme events in the South Asian Summer Monsoon are, on average, linked to events in the East Asian, African, European and North American regions. Although rains in Europe do not cause the rain in Pakistan and India, they belong to the same atmospheric wave pattern, with the European rains being triggered first.

    "This should provide a strong test for weather and climate models and gives promise of better predictions."

    Co-author Jürgen Kurths, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said: "This truly interdisciplinary study, which combines complex network science with atmospheric science, is an outstanding example for the great potential of the rather young field of complexity studies. As well providing insight into the spread of epidemics or information flow across networks, it can also be used to improve our understanding of extreme events in the climate system."

  • abstract Climatic observables are often correlated across long spatial distances, and extreme events, such as heatwaves or floods, are typically assumed to be related to such teleconnections1,2. Revealing atmospheric teleconnection patterns and understanding their underlying mechanisms is of great importance for weather forecasting in general and extreme-event prediction in particular3,4, especially considering that the characteristics of extreme events have been suggested to change under ongoing anthropogenic climate change5,6,7,8. Here we reveal the global coupling pattern of extreme-rainfall events by applying complex-network methodology to high-resolution satellite data and introducing a technique that corrects for multiple-comparison bias in functional networks. We find that the distance distribution of significant connections (P < 0.005) around the globe decays according to a power law up to distances of about 2,500 kilometres. For longer distances, the probability of significant connections is much higher than expected from the scaling of the power law. We attribute the shorter, power-law-distributed connections to regional weather systems. The longer, super-power-law-distributed connections form a global rainfall teleconnection pattern that is probably controlled by upper-level Rossby waves. We show that extreme-rainfall events in the monsoon systems of south-central Asia, east Asia and Africa are significantly synchronized. Moreover, we uncover concise links between south-central Asia and the European and North American extratropics, as well as the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. Analysis of the atmospheric conditions that lead to these teleconnections confirms Rossby waves as the physical mechanism underlying these global teleconnection patterns and emphasizes their crucial role in dynamical tropical–extratropical couplings. Our results provide insights into the function of Rossby waves in creating stable, global-scale dependencies of extreme-rainfall events, and into the potential predictability of associated natural hazards.

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• (proper paper title not referenced by source) oceans contain just the right amount of iron; adding more may not improve their ability to absorb carbon dioxide
  jonathan lauderdale et al. 2020
  sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200217162348.htm

  news.mit.edu/2020/oceans-iron-not-impact-climate-change-0217

  • Historically, the oceans have done much of the planet’s heavy lifting when it comes to sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Microscopic organisms known collectively as phytoplankton, which grow throughout the sunlit surface oceans and absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis, are a key player.
    To help stem escalating carbon dioxide emissions produced by the burning of fossil fuels, some scientists have proposed seeding the oceans with iron — an essential ingredient that can stimulate phytoplankton growth. Such “iron fertilization” would cultivate vast new fields of phytoplankton, particularly in areas normally bereft of marine life.
    A new MIT study suggests that iron ferilization may not have a significant impact on phytoplankton growth, at least on a global scale.
    The researchers studied the interactions between phytoplankton, iron, and other nutrients in the ocean that help phytoplankton grow. Their simulations suggest that on a global scale, marine life has tuned ocean chemistry through these interactions, evolving to maintain a level of ocean iron that supports a delicate balance of nutrients in various regions of the world.
    “According to our framework, iron fertilization cannot have a significant overall effect on the amount of carbon in the ocean because the total amount of iron that microbes need is already just right,’’ says lead author Jonathan Lauderdale, a research scientist in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. 
    The paper’s co-authors are Rogier Braakman, Gael Forget, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, and Mick Follows at MIT.
    Ligand soup
    The iron that phytoplankton depend on to grow comes largely from dust that sweeps over the continents and eventually settles in ocean waters. While huge quantities of iron can be deposited in this way, the majority of this iron quickly  sinks, unused, to the seafloor.
    “The fundamental problem is, marine microbes require iron to grow, but iron doesn’t hang around. Its concentration in the ocean is so miniscule that it’s a treasured resource,” Lauderdale says.
    Hence, scientists have put forth iron fertilization as a way to introduce more iron into the system. But iron availability to phytoplankton is much higher if it is bound up with certain organic compounds that keep iron in the surface ocean and are themselves produced by phytoplankton. These compounds, known as ligands, constitute what Lauderdale describes as a “soup of ingredients” that typically come from organic waste products, dead cells, or siderophores — molecules that the microbes have evolved to bind specifically with iron.
    Not much is known about these iron-trapping ligands at the ecosystem scale, and the team wondered what role the molecules play in regulating the ocean’s capacity to promote the growth of phytoplankton and ultimately absorb carbon dioxide.
    “People have understood how ligands bind iron, but not what are the emergent properties of such a system at the global scale, and what that means for the biosphere as a whole,” Braakman says. “That’s what we’ve tried to model here.”
    Iron sweet spot
    The researchers set out to characterize the interactions between iron, ligands, and macronutrients such as nitrogen and phosphate, and how these interactions affect the global population of phytoplankton and, concurrently, the ocean’s capacity to store carbon dioxide.
    The team developed a simple three-box model, with each box representing a general ocean environment with a particular balance of iron versus macronutrients. The first box represents remote waters such as the Southern Ocean, which typically have a decent concentration of macronutrients that are upwelled from the deep ocean. They also have a low iron content given their great distance from any continental dust source.
    The second box represents the North Atlantic and other waters that have an opposite balance: high in iron because of proximity to dusty continents, and low in macronutrients. The third box is a stand-in for the deep ocean, which is a rich source of macronutrients, such as phosphates and nitrates.
    The researchers simulated a general circulation pattern between the three boxes to represent the global currents that connect all the world’s oceans: The circulation starts in the North Atlantic and dives down into the deep ocean, then upwells into the Southern Ocean and returns back to the North Atlantic.
    The team set relative concentrations of iron and macronutrients in each box, then ran the model to see how phytoplankton growth evolved in each box over 10,000 years. They ran 10,000 simulations, each with different ligand properties.
    Out of their simulations, the researchers identified a crucial positive feedback loop between ligands and iron. Oceans with higher concentrations of ligands had also higher concentrations of iron available for phytoplankton to grow and produce more ligands. When microbes have more than enough iron to feast on, they consume as much of the other nutrients they need, such as nitrogen and phosphate, until those nutrients have been completely depleted.  
    The opposite is true for oceans with low ligand concentrations: These have less iron available for phytoplankton growth, and therefore have very little biological activity in general, leading to less macronutrient consumption.
    The researchers also observed in their simulations a narrow range of ligand concentrations that resulted in a sweet spot, where there was just the right amount of ligand to make just enough iron available for phytoplankton growth, while also leaving just the right amount of macronutrients left over to sustain a whole new cycle of growth across all three ocean boxes.
    When they compared their simulations to measurements of nutrient, iron, and ligand concentrations taken in the real world, they found their simulated sweet spot range turned out to be the closest match. That is, the world’s oceans appear to have just the right amount of ligands, and therefore iron, available to maximize the growth of phytoplankton and optimally consume macronutrients, in a self-reinforcing and self-sustainable balance of resources.
    If scientists were to widely fertilize the Southern Ocean or any other iron-depleted waters with iron, the effort would temporarily stimulate phytoplankton to grow and take up all the macronutrients available in that region. But eventually there would be no macronutrients left to circulate to other regions like the North Atlantic, which depends on these macronutrients, along with iron from dust deposits, for phytoplankton growth. The net result would be an eventual decrease in phytoplankton in the North Atlantic and no significant increase in carbon dioxide draw-down globally.
    Lauderdale points out there may also be other unintended effects to fertilizing the Southern Ocean with iron.
    “We have to consider the whole ocean as this interconnected system,” says Lauderdale, who adds that if phytoplankton in the North Atlantic were to plummet, so too would all the marine life on up the food chain that depends on the microscopic organisms.
    “Something like 75 percent of production north of the Southern Ocean is fueled by nutrients from the Southern Ocean, and the northern oceans are where most fisheries are and where many ecosystem benefits for people occur,” Lauderdale says. “Before we dump loads of iron and draw down nutrients in the Southern Ocean, we should consider unintended consequences downstream that potentially make the environmental situation a lot worse.”

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• protection of permafrost soils from thawing by increasing herbivore density
  christian beer et al. 2020
  doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60938-y

  • Permafrost soils in the Arctic are thawing. As they do, large additional quantities of greenhouse gases could be released, accelerating climate change. In Russia, experiments are now being conducted in which herds of horses, bison and reindeer are being used to combat this effect. A study from Universität Hamburg, just released in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, now shows for the first time that this method could indeed significantly slow the loss of permafrost soils.
    Theoretically speaking, 80 percent of all permafrost soils around the globe could be preserved until the year 2100, as has now been demonstrated by Prof. Christian Beer from Universität Hamburg’s Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), an expert on the permanently frozen soils found throughout the Northern Hemisphere. If no action is taken to prevent it, half of the world’s permafrost will thaw by 2100. The new study explores a somewhat unconventional countermeasure: resettling massive herds of large herbivores.
    The inspiration came from Pleistocene Park in Chersky, a city in northeast Russia. Russian scientists Sergey and Nikita Zimov resettled herds of bison, wisents, reindeer and horses there more than 20 years ago, and have been observing the effects on the soil ever since. In winter the permafrost in Chersky is ca. minus 10 degrees Celsius; at temperatures down to minus 40 degrees Celsius, the air is far colder. Thanks to ample snowfall, there is a thick layer of snow cover that insulates the ground from the frigid air, keeping it “warm.” When the snow cover is scattered and compressed thanks to the grazing animals’ stamping hooves, its insulating effect is dramatically reduced, intensifying the freezing of the permafrost. “This type of natural manipulation in ecosystems that are especially relevant for the climate system has barely been researched to date — but holds tremendous potential,” Beer says.
    The long-term experiments conducted in Russia show that, when 100 animals are resettled in a 1 km2 area, they cut the mean snow cover height in half. Christian Beer and his colleagues wanted to determine what effect this could produce when applied to all Arctic permafrost soils as a whole. Could the animals’ influence, at least in theory, even be enough to mitigate intensive warming of the atmosphere and stop the thawing of the permafrost?
    For the purposes of his study, Beer used a special climate model that can simulate such temperature processes on the land surface over the course of an entire year. The results show: if emissions continue to rise unchecked (scenario RCP 8.5 in the latest IPCC Assessment Report), we can expect to see a 3.8-degree Celsius increase in permafrost temperatures, which would cause half of all permafrost to thaw. In contrast, with animal herds the ground would only warm by ca. 2.1 degrees — 44 percent less, which would be enough to preserve 80 percent of the current soils, as the model shows.
    “It may be utopian to imaging resettling wild animal herds in all the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere,” the Earth system expert concedes. “But the results indicate that using fewer animals would still produce a cooling effect. What we’ve shown here is a promising method for slowing the loss of our permanently frozen soils, and with it, the decomposition and release of the enormous carbon stockpiles they contain.”
    Beer and his team also considered potential side effects of the approach. For example, in summer the animals destroy the cooling moss layer on the ground, which warms it additionally. This aspect was also taken into account in the simulations, but the positive impact of the snow effect in winter is several times greater.

  • abstract Climate change will cause a substantial future greenhouse gas release from warming and thawing permafrost-affected soils to the atmosphere enabling a positive feedback mechanism. Increasing the population density of big herbivores in northern high-latitude ecosystems will increase snow density and hence decrease the insulation strength of snow during winter. As a consequence, theoretically 80% of current permafrost-affected soils (<10 m) is projected to remain until 2100 even when assuming a strong warming using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Importantly, permafrost temperature is estimated to remain below −4 °C on average after increasing herbivore population density. Such ecosystem management practices would be therefore theoretically an important additional climate change mitigation strategy. Our results also highlight the importance of new field experiments and observations, and the integration of fauna dynamics into complex Earth System models, in order to reliably project future ecosystem functions and climate.

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• subfossil trees suggest enhanced mediterranean hydroclimate variability at the onset of the younger dryas
  maren pauly et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32251-2

  • Nearly 13,000 years ago, the warming trend into the Holocene was sharply interrupted by a reversal to near glacial conditions. Climatic causes and ecological consequences of the Younger Dryas (YD) have been extensively studied, however proxy archives from the Mediterranean basin capturing this period are scarce and do not provide annual resolution. Here, we report a hydroclimatic reconstruction from stable isotopes (δ18O, δ13C) in subfossil pines from southern France. Growing before and during the transition period into the YD (12 900–12 600 cal BP), the trees provide an annually resolved, continuous sequence of atmospheric change. Isotopic signature of tree sourcewater (δ18Osw) and estimates of relative air humidity were reconstructed as a proxy for variations in air mass origin and precipitation regime. We find a distinct increase in inter-annual variability of sourcewater isotopes (δ18Osw), with three major downturn phases of increasing magnitude beginning at 12 740 cal BP. The observed variation most likely results from an amplified intensity of North Atlantic (low δ18Osw) versus Mediterranean (high δ18Osw) precipitation. This marked pattern of climate variability is not seen in records from higher latitudes and is likely a consequence of atmospheric circulation oscillations at the margin of the southward moving polar front.

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• tectonics

• end-permian extinction amplified by plume-induced release of recycled lithospheric volatiles
  michael w. broadley et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0215-4

  • Magmatic volatile release to the atmosphere can lead to climatic changes and substantial environmental degradation including the production of acid rain, ocean acidification and ozone depletion, potentially resulting in the collapse of the biosphere. The largest recorded mass extinction in Earth’s history occurred at the end of the Permian, coinciding with the emplacement of the Siberian large igneous province, suggesting that large-scale magmatism is a key driver of global environmental change. However, the source and nature of volatiles in the Siberian large igneous province remain contentious. Here we present halogen compositions of sub-continental lithospheric mantle xenoliths emplaced before and after the eruption of the Siberian flood basalts. We show that the Siberian lithosphere is massively enriched in halogens from the infiltration of subducted seawater-derived volatiles and that a considerable amount (up to 70%) of lithospheric halogens are assimilated into the plume and released to the atmosphere during emplacement. Plume–lithosphere interaction is therefore a key process controlling the volatile content of large igneous provinces and thus the extent of environmental crises, leading to mass extinctions during their emplacement.

• a tectonically driven ediacaran oxygenation event
  joshua j. williams et al. 2019
  doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10286-x

  • fresh insight into what may have driven the "Cambrian Explosion" -- a period of rapid expansion of different forms of animal life that occurred over 500 million years ago.

    While a number of theories have been put forward to explain this landmark period, the most credible is that it was fuelled by a significant rise in oxygen levels which allowed a wide variety of animals to thrive.

    The new study suggests that such a rise in oxygen levels was the result of extraordinary changes in global plate tectonics.

    During the formation of the supercontinent 'Gondwana', there was a major increase in continental arc volcanism -- chains of volcanoes often thousands of miles long formed where continental and oceanic tectonic plates collided. This in turn led to increased 'degassing' of CO2 from ancient, subducted sedimentary rocks.

    This, the team calculated, led to an increase in atmospheric CO2 and warming of the planet, which in turn amplified the weathering of continental rocks, which supplied the nutrient phosphorus to the ocean to drive photosynthesis and oxygen production.

    The study was led by Josh Williams, who began the research as an MSc student at the University of Exeter and is now studying for a PhD at the University of Edinburgh.

    During his MSc project he used a sophisticated biogeochemical model to make the first quantification of changes in atmospheric oxygen levels just prior to this explosion of life.

    Co-author and project supervisor Professor Tim Lenton, from the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute said: "One of the great dilemmas originally recognised by Darwin is why complex life, in the form of fossil animals, appeared so abruptly in what is now known as the Cambrian explosion.

    "Many studies have suggested this was linked to a rise in oxygen levels -- but without a clear cause for such a rise, or any attempt to quantify it."

    Not only did the model predict a marked rise in oxygen levels due to changes in plate tectonic activity, but that rise in oxygen -- to about a quarter of the level in today's atmosphere -- crossed the critical levels estimated to be needed by the animals seen in the Cambrian explosion.

    Williams added: "What is particularly compelling about this research is that not only does the model predict a rise in oxygen to levels estimated to be necessary to support the large, mobile, predatory animal life of the Cambrian, but the model predictions also show strong agreement with existing geochemical evidence."

    "It is remarkable to think that our oldest animal ancestors -- and therefore all of us -- may owe our existence, in part, to an unusual episode of plate tectonics over half a billion years ago" said Professor Lenton.

  • abstract The diversification of complex animal life during the Cambrian Period (541–485.4 Ma) is thought to have been contingent on an oxygenation event sometime during ~850 to 541 Ma in the Neoproterozoic Era. Whilst abundant geochemical evidence indicates repeated intervals of ocean oxygenation during this time, the timing and magnitude of any changes in atmospheric pO2 remain uncertain. Recent work indicates a large increase in the tectonic CO2 degassing rate between the Neoproterozoic and Paleozoic Eras. We use a biogeochemical model to show that this increase in the total carbon and sulphur throughput of the Earth system increased the rate of organic carbon and pyrite sulphur burial and hence atmospheric pO2. Modelled atmospheric pO2 increases by ~50% during the Ediacaran Period (635–541 Ma), reaching ~0.25 of the present atmospheric level (PAL), broadly consistent with the estimated pO2 > 0.1–0.25 PAL requirement of large, mobile and predatory animals during the Cambrian explosion.

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• glacial inception in marine isotope stage 19: an orbital analog for a natural holocene climate
  stephen j. vavrus et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28419-5

  • Fifteen years ago, study co-author William Ruddiman, emeritus paleoclimatologist at the University of Virginia, was studying methane and carbon dioxide trapped in Antarctic ice going back tens of thousands of years when he observed something unusual.
    “I noticed that methane concentrations started decreasing about 10,000 years ago and then reversed direction 5,000 years ago and I also noted that carbon dioxide also started decreasing around 10,000 years ago and then reversed direction about 7,000 years ago,” says Ruddiman. “It alerted me that there was something strange about this interglaciation ... the only explanation I could come up with is early agriculture, which put greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and that was the start of it all.”
    Ruddiman named this the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis and a number of studies have recently emerged suggesting its plausibility. They document widespread deforestation in Europe beginning around 6,000 years ago, the emergence of large farming settlements in China 7,000 years ago, plus the spread of rice paddies — robust sources of methane — throughout northeast Asia by 5,000 years ago.
    Ruddiman and others have also been working to test the hypothesis. He has collaborated with Vavrus, an expert in climate modeling, for many years and their newest study used the Community Climate System Model 4 to simulate what would have happened in the Holocene if not for human agriculture. It offers higher resolution than climate models the team has used previously and provides new insights into the physical processes underlying glaciation.
    For instance, in a simulation of MIS19, glaciation began with strong cooling in the Arctic and subsequent expansion of sea ice and year-round snow cover. The model showed this beginning in an area known as the Canadian archipelago, which includes Baffin Island, where summer temperatures dropped by more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit.
    “This is consistent with geologic evidence,” says Vavrus.
    Today, the Arctic is warming. But before we laud ancient farmers for staving off a global chill, Vavrus and Ruddiman caution that this fundamental alteration to our global climate cycle is uncharted territory.
    “People say (our work) sends the wrong message, but science takes you where it takes you,” says Vavrus. “Things are so far out of whack now, the last 2,000 years have been so outside the natural bounds, we are so far beyond what is natural.”
    The reality is, we don’t know what happens next. And glaciers have long served as Earth’s predominant source of freshwater.
    “There is pretty good agreement in the community of climate scientists that we have stopped the next glaciation for the long, foreseeable future, because even if we stopped putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, what we have now would linger,” says Ruddiman. “The phenomenal fact is, we have maybe stopped the major cycle of Earth’s climate and we are stuck in a warmer and warmer and warmer interglacial.”

  • abstract The Marine Isotope Stage 19c (MIS19c) interglaciation is regarded as the best orbital analog to the Holocene. The close of MIS19c (~777,000 years ago) thus serves as a proxy for a contemporary climate system unaffected by humans. Our global climate model simulation driven by orbital parameters and observed greenhouse gas concentrations at the end of MIS19c is 1.3 K colder than the reference pre-industrial climate of the late Holocene (year 1850). Much stronger cooling occurs in the Arctic, where sea ice and year-round snow cover expand considerably. Inferred regions of glaciation develop across northeastern Siberia, northwestern North America, and the Canadian Archipelago. These locations are consistent with evidence from past glacial inceptions and are favored by atmospheric circulation changes that reduce ablation of snow cover and increase accumulation of snowfall. Particularly large buildups of snow depth coincide with presumed glacial nucleation sites, including Baffin Island and the northeast Canadian Archipelago. These findings suggest that present-day climate would be susceptible to glacial inception if greenhouse gas concentrations were as low as they were at the end of MIS 19c.

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• increasing alkalinity export from large russian arctic rivers
  travis w. drake et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b01051

  • Riverine carbonate alkalinity (HCO3– and CO32–) sourced from chemical weathering represents a significant sink for atmospheric CO2. Alkalinity flux from Arctic rivers is partly determined by precipitation, permafrost extent, groundwater flow paths, and surface vegetation, all of which are changing under a warming climate. Here we show that over the past three and half decades, the export of alkalinity from the Yenisei and Ob’ Rivers increased from 225 to 642 Geq yr–1 (+185%) and from 201 to 470 Geq yr–1 (+134%); an average rate of 11.90 and 7.28 Geq yr–1, respectively. These increases may have resulted from a suite of changes related to climate change and anthropogenic activity, including higher temperatures, increased precipitation, permafrost thaw, changes to hydrologic flow paths, shifts in vegetation, and decreased acid deposition. Regardless of the direct causes, these trends have broad implications for the rate of carbon sequestration on land and delivery of buffering capacity to freshwater ecosystems and the Arctic Ocean.

09412

• climate change: what psychology can offer in terms of insights and solutions
  paul van lange et al. 2018
  doi.org/10.1177/0963721417753945

  • Can psychological science offer evidence-based solutions to climate change? Using insights and principles derived from the literature on social dilemmas and human cooperation, we discuss evidence in support of three solutions: crossing the borders of thought, time, and space. First, borders of thought could be crossed by using persuasion that is concrete and tailored to local circumstances and by highlighting information about people’s efforts as evidence against the myth of self-interest. Second, borders of time could be crossed by using kinship cues, which can help make the future less distant, and relatively uninvolved advisors, who may help make the future salient. And third, borders of space could be crossed by showing group representatives how they might benefit from a frame of altruistic competition—focusing on the benefits of being seen as moral and global in orientation. Our overall conclusion is that psychological science can offer evidence-based solutions to climate change.

• “Abstractness and uncertainty often give rise to beliefs that other people are primarily self-interested.”

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• climate change and psychology: effects of rapid global warming on violence and aggression
  andreas miles-novelo, craig a. anderson 2019
  doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00121-2

  • Anderson says the first route is the most direct: higher temperatures increase irritability and hostility, which can lead to violence. The other two are more indirect and stem from the effects of climate change on natural disasters, failing crops and economic instability. A natural disaster, such as a hurricane or wildfire, does not directly increase violence, but the economic disruption, displacement of families and strain on natural resources that result are what Anderson finds problematic.

    One indirect way natural disasters increase violence is through the development of babies, children and adolescents into violence-prone adults, he said. For example, poor living conditions, disrupted families and inadequate prenatal and child nutrition are risk factors for creating violence-prone adults. Anderson and Miles-Novelo noted these risk factors will become more prevalent as a result of climate change-induced disasters, such as hurricanes, droughts, floods, water shortages and changing agricultural practices for efficient production of food.

    Another indirect effect: Some natural disasters are so extensive and long term that large groups of people are forced to migrate from their homeland. Anderson says this "eco-migration" creates intergroup conflicts over resources, which may result in political violence, civil wars or wars between nations.

    "This is a global issue with very serious consequences. We need to plan for ways to reduce the negative impacts," Anderson said. "An inadequate food supply and economic disparity make it difficult to raise healthy and productive citizens, which is one way to reduce long-term violence. We also need to plan for and devote resources to aid eco-migrants in their relocation to new lands and countries."

    Which is worse?

    There are no data and there is no method to estimate which of the three factors will be most damaging, Anderson said. The link between heat and aggression has the potential to affect the greatest number of people, and existing research, including Anderson's, shows hotter regions have more violent crime, poverty and unemployment.

    However, Anderson fears the third effect he and Miles-Novelo identified -- eco-migration and conflict -- could be the most destructive. He says we are already seeing the migration of large groups in response to physical, economic or political instability resulting from ecological disasters. The conflict in Syria is one example.

    Differences between migrants and the people living in areas where migrants are relocating can be a source of tension and violence, Anderson said. As the level of such conflicts escalates, combined with the availability of weapons of mass destruction, the results could be devastating.

    "Although the most extreme events, such as all-out war, are relatively unlikely, the consequences are so severe that we cannot afford to ignore them," Anderson said. "That is why the U.S. and other countries must make sure these regional conflicts and eco-migration problems don't get out of hand. One way to do that is to provide appropriate aid to refugees and make it easier for them to migrate to regions where they can be productive, healthy and happy."

    Taking action now

    Anderson and Miles-Novelo say the purpose of their research is to raise awareness among the scientific community to work on prevention efforts or ways to limit harmful consequences. The long-term goal is to educate the public on the potential for increased violence.

    "From past experience with natural disasters, we should be able to prepare for future problems by setting aside emergency resources and funds," Miles-Novelo said. "We should tear down negative stereotypes and prejudices about those who will need help and humanely assist refugees and others who are displaced. By doing all these things we can reduce conflict and hostility."

    Changing attitudes and policies about immigration also will lessen the potential for conflict, Anderson said. He points to the backlash against refugees in many European countries.

    "The view that citizens of wealthy countries often have about refugees needs to change -- from seeing them as a threat to a view that emphasizes humanitarian values and the benefits refugees bring when they are welcomed into the community," Anderson said.

  • abstract (a) how hot temperatures directly influence aggression and violence; (b) how rapid climate change indirectly increases adulthood violence proneness through its effects on physiological and psychological development; (c) and how ecomigration influences group-level aggression.

• earth’s new gilded era: the world is getting hotter, and the divide between rich and poor is getting bigger
  vann r. newkirk ii et al. 2020
  www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/heat-human-rights-issue-21st-century/616693/

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• shattered roads
  alice henderson 2018

• emergency skin
  n.k. jemisin 2019

09712

• fiction not yet read

  • trail of lightning
    rebecca roanhorse 2018

  • storm of locusts
    rebecca roanhorse 2019

  • the ministry for the future
    kim stanley robinson 2020

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• not yet read

  • climate change playbook: thinking games for more effective communication about climate change
    linda booth sweeney, gillian martin mehers, dennis meadows 2016

  • don’t even think about: it why our brains are wired to ignore climate change
    george marshall 2014

  • the climate swerve: reflections on mind, hope, and survival
    robert jay lifton 2017

  • global crisis: war, climate change and catastrophe in the seventeenth century
    geoffrey parker 2013

  • mountains, rivers, and the great earth: reading gary snyder and dogen in an age of ecological crisis
    jason wirth 2017

  • the hard work of hope: climate change in the age of trump
    jon o’riordan 2017

  • gaia in turmoil: climate change, biodepletion, and earth ethics in an age of crisis
    eileen crist, h. bruce rinker 2009

  • stolen future, broken present: the human significance of climate change
    david a. collings 2014

  • no immediate danger: volume one of carbon ideologies
    william t. vollmann 2018

  • what’s the worst that could happen? a rational response to the climate change debate
    greg craven 2009

  • storming the wall: climate change, migration, and homeland security
    todd miller 2017

  • climate leviathan: a political theory of our planetary future
    joel wainwright & geoff mann 2018

  • too late; how we lost the battle with climate change
    geoffrey maslen 2017

  • defiant earth: the fate of humans in the anthropocene
    clive hamilton 2017

  • birth of a new earth: the radical politics of environmentalism
    adrian parr 2017

  • why are we waiting? the logic, urgency, and promise of tackling climate change
    nicholas stern 2015

  • rising tides: climate refugees in the twenty-first century
    john wennersten 2017

  • climate wars: the fight for survival as the world overheats
    gwynne dyer 2011

  • the shock of the anthropocene: the earth, history and us
    christophe bonneuil & jean-baptiste fressoz 2017

  • down to the wire: confronting climate collapse
    david w. orr 2009

  • the green marble: earth system science and global sustainability
    david turner 2018

  • climate: a new story
    charles eisenstein 2018

  • climate justice: hope, resilience, and the fight for a sustainable future
    mary robinson 2018

  • the uninhabitable earth: life after warming
    david wallace-wells 2019

  • being the change: how to live well and spark a climate revolution
    peter kalmus 2017

  • the sixth extinction: an unnatural history elizabeth kolbert 2014

  • the upside of down
    thomas homer-dixon 2006

  • the ingenuity gap: can we solve the problems of the future?
    thomas homer-dixon 2000

  • the great derangement: climate change and the unthinkable
    amitav ghosh 2016

  • resetting our future: what if solving the climate crisis is simple?
    tom bowman 2020 unread

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02012

• i just called to say i love you
  stevie wonder

  • no new year’s day to celebrate
    no chocolate covered candy hearts to give away
    no first of spring
    no song to sing
    in fact here’s just another ordinary day
    　
    no april rain
    no flowers bloom
    no wedding saturday within the month of june
    but what it is, is something true
    made up of these three words that i must say to you
    　
    ☆i just called to say i love you
    　i just called to say how much i care
    　i just called to say i love you
    　and i mean it from the bottom of my heart
    　
    no summer’s high
    no warm july
    no harvest moon to light one tender august night
    no autumn breeze
    no falling leaves
    not even time for birds to fly to southern skies
    　
    no libra sun
    no halloween
    no giving thanks to all the christmas joy you bring
    but what it is, though oh so new
    to fill your heart like no three words could ever do
    　
    ☆repeat x2

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• frozen 2

  • all is found
    evan rachel wood 2019

    • where the north wind / meets the sea
      there’s a river / full of memory
      sleep my darling / safe and sound
      for in this river / all is found

      in her waters / deep and true
      lie the answers and a / path for you
      dive down deep / into her sound
      but not too far / or you'll be drowned

      she will sing / to those who'll hear
      and in her song / all magic flows
      can you brave / what you most fear
      can you face / what the river knows

      (when the river’s fin’lly crossed
      can we walk / on solid ground
      we have to get a little lost
      on our way / to being found)

      where the north wind / meets the sea
      there’s a mother / full of memory
      come my darling / homeward bound
      where(when) all is lost / (and) all is found

  • some things never change

    • yes / some things / never change
      like the feel of your hand in mine
      some things / stay the same
      like how we get along just fine
      like an old stone wall / that will never fall
      some things / are always true
      some things / never change
      like how i'm holding on tight to you

      • makiaea 20200905
        youtube.com/watch

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• magnesium Mg (magnesia in Greece)
• μ
  • Μ, mu
• hyoga
  • diamond dust attack
  • cygnus cloth
• AB
• http link back to 00100