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• politics through the lens of bias
  politics-makes-us-mean-and-dumb

  • much of the first two thirds is right, but everything after “there may be no solution” is to prove that rather than to try to find one

• why facts don’t change our minds
  elizabeth kolbert 2017
  confirmation bias etc but no solutions
  why-facts-dont-change-our-minds

  • “The Enigma of Reason,” “The Knowledge Illusion,” and “Denying to the Grave”

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• simple rules
  donald sull and kathleen eisenhardt 2015

  • ideas about developing and using systems of simple rules for decision making
  • some examples are objectionable to me but on the whole some good ideas at least for conscious thinking

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Link: 06007-e6e1b7f0e23051c12b2d8e5e3d4846f1.html

• mindware; tools for smart thinking
  richard nisbett 2015 9780374710675

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Link: 07007-45319d8a3f56ae48fe38a32438135416.html

• you are now less dumb: how to conquer mob mentality, how to buy happiness, and all the other ways to outsmart yourself
  david mcraney 2013 9781101621783

  • a problem with these studies and this sort of overview book is that they draw conclusions about the majority who fail the test rather than the minority who succeed — and what we need to learn is how to succeed against these “problems”. also, the “evolutionary pressures” that may have lead to these “problems” are all speculations, they are untested stories

• you are not so smart
  david mcraney 2011
  not recommended

  • you
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You are a rational, logical being who sees the world as it really is.
    THE TRUTH: You are as deluded as the rest of us, but that’s OK, it keeps you sane.

  • Priming
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You know when you are being influenced and how it is affecting your behavior.
    THE TRUTH: You are unaware of the constant nudging you receive from ideas formed in your unconscious mind.

  • Confabulation
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You know when you are lying to yourself.
    THE TRUTH: You are often ignorant of your motivations and create fictional narratives to explain your decisions, emotions, and history without realizing it.

    • George Miller once said, “It is the result of thinking, not the process of thinking, that appears spontaneously in consciousness.” In other words, in many ways you are only reporting on what your mind has already produced instead of directing its performance. The flow of consciousness is one thing; the recollection of its course is another, yet you usually see them as the same. This is one of the oldest concepts in psychology and philosophy—phenomenology.
    • Daniel Dennett calls seeing yourself in this way heterophenomenology. Basically, he suggests when you explain why you feel the way you do, or why you behaved as you did, to take it with a grain of salt, as if you were listening to someone tell you about their night out. When you listen to someone else tell a story, you expect some embellishment and you know they are only telling you how the events seemed to transpire to them. In the same way, you know how reality seems to be unfolding, how it seems to have unfolded in the past, but you should take your own perception with a grain of salt.
    • Nisbett and Miller set up their own study in a department store where they arranged nylon stockings side by side. When people came by, they asked them to say which of four items in a set was the best quality. Four-to-one, people chose the stocking on the right-hand side even though they were all identical. When the researchers asked why, people would comment on the texture or the color, but never the position. When asked if the order of the presentation influenced their choice, they assured the scientists it had nothing to do with it.
    • How do you separate fantasy from reality? How can you be sure the story of your life both from long ago and minute to minute is true? There is a pleasant vindication to be found when you accept that you can’t. No one can, yet we persist and thrive.

  • Confirmation Bias
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Your opinions are the result of years of rational, objective analysis.
    THE TRUTH: Your opinions are the result of years of paying attention to information that confirmed what you believed, while ignoring information that challenged your preconceived notions.

    • people weren’t buying books for the information, they were buying them for the confirmation.
    • you want to be right about how you see the world, so you seek out information that confirms your beliefs and avoid contradictory evidence and opinions.
    • study suggests even in your memories you fall prey to confirmation bias, recalling those things that support even recently-arrived-at beliefs and forgetting those things that contradict them.

  • Hindsight Bias
    THE MISCONCEPTION: After you learn something new, you remember how you were once ignorant or wrong.
    THE TRUTH: You often look back on the things you’ve just learned and assume you knew them or believed them all along.

    • Hindsight bias is a close relative of the availability heuristic. You tend to believe anecdotes and individual sensational news stories are more representative of the big picture than they are. If you see lots of shark attacks in the news, you think, “Gosh, sharks are out of control.” What you should think is “Gosh, the news loves to cover shark attacks.” The availability heuristic shows you make decisions and think thoughts based on the information you have at hand, while ignoring all the other information that might be out there. You do the same thing with Hindsight Bias, by thinking thoughts and making decisions based on what you know now, not what you used to know.

  • The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You take randomness into account when determining cause and effect.
    THE TRUTH: You tend to ignore random chance when the results seem meaningful or when you want a random event to have a meaningful cause.

    • The fallacy gets its name from imagining a cowboy shooting at a barn. Over time, the side of the barn becomes riddled with holes. In some places there are lots of them, in others there are few. If the cowboy later paints a bull’s-eye over a spot where his bullet holes clustered together, it looks like he is pretty good with a gun. By painting a bull’s-eye over a cluster of bullet holes, the cowboy places artificial order over natural random chance. If you have a human brain, you do this all of the time. Picking out clusters of coincidence is a predictable malfunction of normal human logic.
    • If hindsight bias and confirmation bias had a baby, it would be the Texas sharpshooter fallacy.
    • One of the reasons scientists form a hypothesis and then try to disprove it with new research is to avoid the Texas sharpshooter fallacy.
    • To accept that things like residential cancer clusters are often just coincidence is deeply unsatisfying. The powerlessness, the feeling you are defenseless to the whims of chance, can be assuaged by singling out an antagonist. Sometimes you need a bad guy, and the Texas sharpshooter fallacy is one way you can create one.
    • Whenever possible, you oppose the forces of entropy and thwart their relentless derangement. Your drive to do this is primal. You need order. Order makes it easier to be a person, to navigate this sloppy world. For ancient man, pattern recognition led to food and protected people from harm. You are able to read these words because your ancestors recognized patterns and changed their behavior to better acquire food and avoiding becoming it. Evolution has made us into beings looking for clusters where chance events have built up like sand into dunes.
      • this is not necessarily true

  • Procrastination
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You procrastinate because you are lazy and can’t manage your time well.
    THE TRUTH: Procrastination is fueled by weakness in the face of impulse and a failure to think about thinking.

    • describing mischel’s marshmallow study, neglects to mention social circumstances of the children, whether they were lucky enough to learn the ways of distracting themselves from the things they were taught to want.
    • The stupid monkey part of your brain wants to gobble up candy bars and go deeply into debt.
      • as before, this is not necessarily true
    • If you fail to believe you will procrastinate or become idealistic about how awesome you are at working hard and managing your time, you never develop a strategy for outmaneuvering your own weakness.
    • Your effort is better spent outsmarting yourself than making empty promises through plugging dates into a calendar or setting deadlines for push-ups.

  • Normalcy Bias
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Your fight-or-flight instincts kick in and you panic when disaster strikes.
    THE TRUTH: You often become abnormally calm and pretend everything is normal in a crisis.

    • According to Johnson and Leach, the sort of people who survive are the sort of people who prepare for the worst and practice ahead of time. They’ve done the research, or built the shelter, or run the drills. They look for the exits and imagine what they will do. They were in a fire as a child or survived a typhoon. These people don’t deliberate during calamity because they’ve already done the deliberation the other people around them are just now going through.
      Normalcy bias is stalling during a crisis and pretending everything will continue to be as fine and predictable as it was before. Those who defeat it act when others don’t. They move when others are considering whether or not they should.
      As Johnson points out, the brain must go through a procedure before the body acts—cognition, perception, comprehension, decision, implementation, and then movement. There’s no way to overclock this, but you can practice until these steps individually are no longer complex, and thus no longer take up valuable brain computation cycles. Johnson likens it to playing an instrument. If you’ve never played a C chord on a guitar, you have to think your way through it and awkwardly press down on the strings until you make a clumsy twang. With a few minutes of practice, you can strum without as much deliberation and create a more pleasant sound.

  • Introspection
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You know why you like the things you like and feel the way you feel.
    THE TRUTH: The origin of certain emotional states is unavailable to you, and when pressed to explain them, you will just make something up.

    • When you ask people why they do or do not like things, they must then translate something from a deep, emotional, primal part of their psyche into the language of the higher, logical, rational world of words and sentences and paragraphs. The problem here is those deeper recesses of the mind are perhaps inaccessible and unconscious. The things that are available to consciousness might not have much to do with your preferences. Later, when you attempt to justify your decisions or emotional attachments, you start worrying about what your explanation says about you as a person, further tainting the validity of your inner narrative.
    • In the Poster Test, most people truly preferred the nice painting to the inspirational cat, but they couldn’t conjure up a rational explanation of why, at least not in a way that would make logical sense on paper. On the other hand, you can write all sorts of bullshit about a motivational poster. It has a stated and tangible purpose.
    • Another of Wilson’s experiments had subjects rate the quality of jam. He placed before them five varieties of jam which had previously been ranked by Consumer Reports as the first, eleventh, twenty-fourth, thirty-second, and forty-fourth best jams on the market. One group tasted and ranked how good they thought the jams were. The other group had to write out what they did and did not like about each one as they tasted it. As with the posters, the people who didn’t have to explain themselves gravitated toward the same ones Consumer Reports said were best. The people forced to introspect rated the jams inconsistently and had varying preferences based on their explanations. Taste is difficult to quantify and put into words, so the explainers focused on other aspects like texture or color or viscosity. None of which in the end made much difference to the non-explainers.
    • Believing you understand your motivations and desires, your likes and dislikes, is called the introspection illusion. You believe you know yourself and why you are the way you are. You believe this knowledge tells you how you will act in all future situations. Research shows otherwise. Time after time, experiments show introspection is not the act of tapping into your innermost mental constructs but is instead a fabrication. You look at what you did, or how you felt, and you make up some sort of explanation that you can reasonably believe. If you have to tell others, you make up an explanation they can believe too. When it comes to explaining why you like the things you like, you are not so smart, and the very act of having to explain yourself can change your attitudes.

  • The Availability Heuristic
    THE MISCONCEPTION: With the advent of mass media, you understand how the world works based on statistics and facts culled from many examples.
    THE TRUTH: You are far more likely to believe something is commonplace if you can find just one example of it, and you are far less likely to believe in something you’ve never seen or heard of before.

  • The Bystander Effect
    THE MISCONCEPTION: When someone is hurt, people rush to their aid.
    THE TRUTH: The more people who witness a person in distress, the less likely it is that any one person will help.

    • this has since been debunked

  • The Dunning-Kruger Effect
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You can predict how well you would perform in any situation.
    THE TRUTH: You are generally pretty bad at estimating your competence and the difficulty of complex tasks.

    • Charles Darwin said it best: “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”

  • Apophenia
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Some coincidences are so miraculous, they must have meaning.
    THE TRUTH: Coincidences are a routine part of life, even the seemingly miraculous ones. Any meaning applied to them comes from your mind.

  • Brand Loyalty
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You prefer the things you own over the things you don’t because you made rational choices when you bought them.
    THE TRUTH: You prefer the things you own because you rationalize your past choices to protect your sense of self.

  • The Argument from Authority
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You are more concerned with the validity of information than the person delivering it.
    THE TRUTH: The status and credentials of an individual greatly influence your perception of that individual’s message.

  • The Argument from Ignorance
    THE MISCONCEPTION: When you can’t explain something, you focus on what you can prove.
    THE TRUTH: When you are unsure of something, you are more likely to accept strange explanations.

    • People who refuse to believe such things claim they need more evidence before they can change their minds, but no amount of evidence will satisfy them. Any shred of doubt allows them to argue from ignorance.

  • The Straw Man Fallacy
    THE MISCONCEPTION: When you argue, you try to stick to the facts.
    THE TRUTH: In any argument, anger will tempt you to reframe your opponent’s position.

  • The Ad Hominem Fallacy
    THE MISCONCEPTION: If you can’t trust someone, you should ignore that person’s claims.
    THE TRUTH: What someone says and why they say it should be judged separately.

    • very few people can avoid doing this, because the solution to this fallacy is not in avoiding judgement but by shifting criteria of judgement. as long as consistency and identity are primary values, they are used as primary categories for judgment

  • The Just-World Fallacy
    THE MISCONCEPTION: People who are losing at the game of life must have done something to deserve it.
    THE TRUTH: The beneficiaries of good fortune often do nothing to earn it, and bad people often get away with their actions without consequences.

    • understanding circumstances, chance and probability are ways of solving this
    • You want the world to be fair, so you pretend it is. “karma”

  • The Public Goods Game
    THE MISCONCEPTION: We could create a system with no regulations where everyone would contribute to the good of society, everyone would benefit, and everyone would be happy.
    THE TRUTH: Without some form of regulation, slackers and cheaters will crash economic systems because people don’t want to feel like suckers.

    • false myth of “tragedy of commons”

  • The Ultimatum Game
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You choose to accept or refuse an offer based on logic.
    THE TRUTH: When it comes to making a deal, you base your decision on your status.

    • effect is even greater if the person making the final decision has low serotonin levels. If a person feels sad and unwanted, he or she will demand more money before accepting. That person’s default settings give him or her a sense of lower status, and thus the person is unwilling to lower it even further by accepting an unfair offer.

  • Subjective Validation
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You are skeptical of generalities.
    THE TRUTH: You are prone to believing vague statements and predictions are true, especially if they are positive and address you personally.

  • Cult Indoctrination
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You are too smart to join a cult.
    THE TRUTH: Cults are populated by people just like you.

  • Groupthink
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Problems are easier to solve when a group of people get together to discuss solutions.
    THE TRUTH: The desire to reach consensus and avoid confrontation hinders progress.

    • for any plan to work, every team needs at least one asshole who doesn’t give a shit if he or she gets fired or exiled or excommunicated. For a group to make good decisions, they must allow dissent and convince everyone they are free to speak their mind without risk of punishment.

  • Supernormal Releasers
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Men who have sex with RealDolls are insane, and women who marry eighty-year-old billionaires are gold diggers.
    THE TRUTH: The RealDoll and rich old sugar daddies are both supernormal releasers.

    • oh dear, he’s quoting david buss here

  • The Affect Heuristic
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You calculate what is risky or rewarding and always choose to maximize gains while minimizing losses.
    THE TRUTH: You depend on emotions to tell you if something is good or bad, greatly overestimate rewards, and tend to stick to your first impressions.

    • this might be why a strategy of many meetings with many different people can lead to better friendships, by improving initial starting conditions
    • especially if you don’t fit stereotypes, where your chance of a favourable impression in the other party is lower
    • consequence of judgement
    • again with the elliott example. i wonder if it will be disproved one day? i remain sceptical about its truth — with single examples like these it is easy to see that facts can be distorted
    • starting to get disillusioned with this book, there seems to be little scope for improvement

  • Self-Serving Bias
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You evaluate yourself based on past successes and defeats.
    THE TRUTH: You excuse your failures and see yourself as more successful, more intelligent, and more skilled than you are.

    • so again start thinking about those people who actually do manage to avoid these biases and the circumstances that happened too allow them to do so — that would be a worthy research project

  • The Spotlight Effect
    THE MISCONCEPTION: When you are around others, you feel as if everyone is noticing every aspect of your appearance and behavior.
    THE TRUTH: People devote little attention to you unless prompted to.

    • truly written by a privileged person

  • The Third Person Effect
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You believe your opinions and decisions are based on experience and facts, while those who disagree with you are falling for the lies and propaganda of sources you don’t trust.
    THE TRUTH: Everyone believes the people they disagree with are gullible, and everyone thinks they are far less susceptible to persuasion than they truly are.

    • there really isn’t a lot for people who are past this point, for example if we do believe that we are all gullible, what then?

  • Catharsis
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Venting your anger is an effective way to reduce stress and prevent lashing out at friends and family.
    THE TRUTH: Venting increases aggressive behavior over time.

  • The Misinformation Effect
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Memories are played back like recordings.
    THE TRUTH: Memories are constructed anew each time from whatever information is currently available, which makes them highly permeable to influences from the present.

  • Conformity
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You are a strong individual who doesn’t conform unless forced to.
    THE TRUTH: It takes little more than an authority figure or social pressure to get you to obey, because conformity is a survival instinct.

  • Extinction Burst
    THE MISCONCEPTION: If you stop engaging in a bad habit, the habit will gradually diminish until it disappears from your life.
    THE TRUTH: Any time you quit something cold turkey, your brain will make a last-ditch effort to return you to your habit.

  • Social Loafing
    THE MISCONCEPTION: When you are joined by others in a task, you work harder and become more accomplished.
    THE TRUTH: Once part of a group, you tend to put in less effort because you know your work will be pooled together with others’.

  • The Illusion of Transparency
    THE MISCONCEPTION: When your emotions run high, people can look at you and tell what you are thinking and feeling.
    THE TRUTH: Your subjective experience is not observable, and you overestimate how much you telegraph your inner thoughts and emotions.

  • Learned Helplessness
    THE MISCONCEPTION: If you are in a bad situation, you will do whatever you can do to escape it.
    THE TRUTH: If you feel like you aren’t in control of your destiny, you will give up and accept whatever situation you are in.

  • Embodied Cognition
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Your opinions of people and events are based on objective evaluation.
    THE TRUTH: You translate your physical world into words, and then believe those words.

  • The Anchoring Effect
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You rationally analyze all factors before making a choice or determining value.
    THE TRUTH: Your first perception lingers in your mind, affecting later perceptions and decisions.

  • Attention
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You see everything going on before your eyes, taking in all the information like a camera.
    THE TRUTH: You are aware only of a small amount of the total information your eyes take in, and even less is processed by your conscious mind and remembered.

  • Self-Handicapping
    THE MISCONCEPTION: In all you do, you strive for success.
    THE TRUTH: You often create conditions for failure ahead of time to protect your ego.

    • “Psychologist Phillip Zombardo told The New York Times in 1984, “Some people stake their whole identity on their acts. They take the attitude that ‘if you criticize anything I do, you criticize me.’ Their egocentricity means they can’t risk a failure because it’s a devastating blow to their ego.””

  • Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Predictions about your future are subject to forces beyond your control.
    THE TRUTH: Just believing a future event will happen can cause it to happen if the event depends on human behavior.

    • “Research shows if you believe someone is going to be an asshole, you will act hostile, thus causing them to act like an asshole. This same research shows if people think their partner doesn’t love them, they will interpret small slights as big hurts—and this will then lead to a feeling of rejection that causes the partner to distance him- or herself. The feedback loop will build and build until the prophecy is fulfilled.”
    • “In an experiment performed by Steven Sherman in 1980, two sets of people were asked over the phone to donate three hours of time to a cancer drive. One group was simply asked if they would do it. They said yes. Four percent showed up. The other group was asked if they thought they would show up if they were to be asked. Most said they would show up. Almost all of them did. The second group had made an assumption about their own personality, and once they had painted a portrait of what kind of person they were, they had to conform to the idea or risk cognitive dissonance.”
    • “the things you think are true will become reality if given enough time to fester. If you want a better job, a better marriage, a better teacher, a better friend—you have to act as if the thing you want out of the other person is already headed your way. It doesn’t guarantee you’ll see a change, but it’s better than nothing. The point is this: A negative outlook will lead to negative predictions, and you will start to unconsciously manipulate your environment to deliver those predictions.”

  • The Moment
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You are one person, and your happiness is based on being content with your life.
    THE TRUTH: You are multiple selves, and happiness is based on satisfying all of them.

    • “Kahneman’s research suggests there are two channels through which you decide whether or not you are happy. The current self is happy when experiencing nice things. The remembering self is happy when you look back on your life and pull up plenty of positive memories. As Kahneman points out, a two-week vacation may yield only a handful of lifelong memories. You will pull those memories out every once and a while and use them to be happy. There is a serious imbalance between the time you spend creating these memories and the time you spend enjoying them later.”
    • “The current self doesn’t like sitting in a cubicle. It feels caged. It could be doing something fun. The remembering self doesn’t like not having the opportunity to build new memories, so it is willing to grind away to earn money for food and shelter and delay gratification.
      Life for you and many others is full of conflict between these two selves over how best to be happy. Kahneman’s research shows that happiness can’t be all one or all the other. You have to be happy in the flow of time while simultaneously creating memories you can look back on later.
      To be happy now and content later, you can’t be focused only on reaching goals, because once you reach them, the experience ends. To truly be happy, you must satisfy both of your selves. Go get the ice cream, but do so in a meaningful way that creates a long-term memory. Grind away to have money for later, but do so in a way that generates happiness as you work.“

  • Consistency Bias
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You know how your opinions have changed over time.
    THE TRUTH: Unless you consciously keep tabs on your progress, you assume the way you feel now is the way you have always felt.

  • The Representativeness Heuristic
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Knowing a person’s history makes it easier to determine what sort of person they are.
    THE TRUTH: You jump to conclusions based on how representative a person seems to be of a preconceived character type.

    • linda the bank teller again
      not such a great example

  • Expectation
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Wine is a complicated elixir, full of subtle flavors only an expert can truly distinguish, and experienced tasters are impervious to deception.
    THE TRUTH: Wine experts and consumers can be fooled by altering their expectations.

  • The Illusion of Control
    THE MISCONCEPTION: You know how much control you have over your surroundings.
    THE TRUTH: You often believe you have control over outcomes that are either random or are too complex to predict.

    • “Power breeds certainty, and certainty has no clout against the unpredictable, whether you are playing poker or running a country.”
    • “Learn to coexist with chaos. Factor it into your plans. Accept that failure is always a possibility, even if you are one of the good guys; those who believe failure is not an option never plan for it. Some things are predictable and manageable, but the farther away in time an event occurs, the less power you have over it. The farther away from your body and the more people involved, the less agency you wield. Like a billion rolls of a trillion dice, the factors at play are too complex, too random to truly manage. You can no more predict the course of your life than you could the shape of a cloud. So seek to control the small things, the things that matter, and let them pile up into a heap of happiness. In the bigger picture, control is an illusion anyway.”

  • The Fundamental Attribution Error
    THE MISCONCEPTION: Other people’s behavior is the reflection of their personality.
    THE TRUTH: Other people’s behavior is more the result of the situation than their disposition.

    • “If it could happen to anyone, it could happen to you. It’s an unpleasant thought to imagine evil could be more the result of a series of terrible events and social pressures than the working of a deviant mind. Knowing this is so does in no way excuse those who harm others, but nevertheless it seems to be true. If this rattles you a bit, don’t worry, it means you are still sane.”
    • “According to psychologist Harold Kelly, when you conjure an attribution for someone else’s actions, you consider consistency. If one of your friends gets into a fight with someone you know, you first look to see if their behavior is consistent with their past behaviors. If they are always getting into fights over petty disagreements, you place the blame on their personality. If they are usually calm, you place the blame on the situation. Usually, this shorthand works, and in our evolutionary past it was easy to check for consistency among the people one saw every day. In the modern world, you can’t check for consistency with your waitress or the people on the subway. You can’t tell if the person on the shooting rampage was being consistent, or if the person who just cut you off in traffic is always an asshole. When you can’t check for consistency, you blame people’s behavior on their personality.”
    • “People are not good at heart, Zimbardo says, but because their environment encourages it. Anyone, he believes, is capable of becoming a monster if given the power and opportunity.”
    • “When you interpret your loved one’s coldness as his or her indifference to your wants and needs instead of as a reaction to stress at work or problems ricocheting in your loved one’s own heart, you’ve committed the fundamental attribution error. When you vote for someone because that person seems likable and approachable, and ignore how much of their persona is contrived for the sake of votes, it’s the same error at work. You commit it again when you assay friendliness as sexual interest, or poverty as the result of laziness. When you look for a cause for another person’s actions, you find it. Rarely, though, do you first consider how powerful the situation is. You blame the person, not the environment and the influence of the person’s peers. You do this because you would like to believe your own behavior comes strictly from within. You know this isn’t true though. You shift from introvert to extrovert, from brainiac to simpleton, from charismatic to impish—depending on where you find yourself and who is watching.
      The fundamental attribution error leads to labels and assumptions about who people are, but remember first impressions are mostly incorrect. Those impressions will linger until you get to know people and understand their situation and the circumstances in which their behavior is generated.”

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• “The scientific literature has emphasized the benefits of conscious deliberation in decision making for hundreds of years… The question addressed here is whether this view is justified. We hypothesize that it is not.”

  • on the benefits of thinking unconsciously: unconscious thought can increase post-choice satisfaction
    ap dijksterhuis, zeger van olden 2005
    doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2005.10.008

  • think different: the merits of unconscious thought in preference development and decision making
    ap dijksterhuis 2004
    doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.87.5.586

  • disputed results a fresh blow for social psychology: failure to replicate intelligence-priming effects ignites row in research community
    alison abbott 2013
    nature.com/news/disputed-results-a-fresh-blow-for-social-psychology-1.12902

  • a case for thinking without consciousness
    ap dijksterhuis, madelijn strick 2016
    doi.org/10.1177/1745691615615317

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• not yet read

  • meltdown: why our systems fail and what we can do about it
    chris clearfield, andrás tilcsik 2018

  • the happiness hack: how to take charge of your brain and program more happiness into your life
    ellen petry leanse 2017

  • systems practice: how to act in situations of uncertainty and complexity in a climate-change world
    ray ison 2017

  • brain fart: discover your flawed logic, failures in common sense and intuition, and irrational behavior - how to think less stupid
    peter hollins 2017

  • thinking in systems: a primer
    donella h. meadows, diana wright 2008

  • heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgment
    thomas gilovich, daniel kahneman, dale w. griffin 2002

  • the utopia of rules: on technology, stupidity, and the secret joys of bureaucracy
    david graeber 2013

  • the knowledge illusion: why we never think alone
    steven sloman, philip fernbach 2017

09907

• not recommended

  • atomic habits: an easy & proven way to build good habits & break bad ones
    james clear 2018
    not recommended

    • starts off great but the rest didn’t feel good to me

    • how to create a good habit

      • cue: make it obvious
        craving: make it attractive
        response: make it easy
        reward: make it satisfying

    • how to break a bad habit

      • invert cue: make it invisible
        invert craving: make it unattractive
        invert response: make it difficult
        invert reward: make it unsatisfying

    • “you don’t need to be aware of the cue for a habit to begin. You can notice an opportunity and take action without dedicating conscious attention to it. This is what makes habits useful.
      It’s also what makes them dangerous. As habits form, your actions come under the direction of your automatic and nonconscious mind. You fall into old patterns before you realize what’s happening.”

    • “Carl Jung said, “Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.”

    • “Pointing-and-Calling raises your level of awareness from a nonconscious habit to a more conscious level by verbalizing your actions”

    • “implementation intention is:
      “When situation X arises, I will perform response Y.”

      • “I will [BEHAVIOR] at [TIME] in [LOCATION].”
      • “people think they lack motivation when what they really lack is clarity. It is not always obvious when and where to take action.”
      • another benefit to implementation intentions. Being specific about what you want and how you will achieve it helps you say no to things that derail progress, distract your attention, and pull you off course. We often say yes to little requests because we are not clear enough about what we need to be doing instead. When your dreams are vague, it’s easy to rationalize little exceptions all day long and never get around to the specific things you need to do to succeed.

    • start your habit, try the first day of the week, month, or year. People are more likely to take action at those times

    • habit stacking:
      “After [CURRENT HABIT], I will [NEW HABIT].”

      • place things such that tasks get done automatically
      • permaculture, christopher alexander
      • when exiting a room, take the items stacked in the outbox if their destination is relevant
      • wash pots and pans and knives straight after use as these become more awkward to wash or dangerous to handle otherwise
      • place dishes in sink such that when you wash your hands (and pots as above) the dishes get rinsed before actual dish washing
      • do calligraphy practice at the same time as reviewing language flashcards, once per review is enough

    • “disciplined” people are better at structuring their lives in a way that does not require heroic willpower and self-control. In other words, they spend less time in tempting situations.
      The people with the best self-control are typically the ones who need to use it the least. It’s easier to practice self-restraint when you don’t have to use it very often. So, yes, perseverance, grit, and willpower are essential to success, but the way to improve these qualities is not by wishing you were a more disciplined person, but by creating a more disciplined environment.

    • habit stacking + temptation bundling:
      1 After [CURRENT HABIT], I will [HABIT I NEED].
      2 After [HABIT I NEED], I will [HABIT I WANT].

    • as opposed to the chapter on fitting in and joining groups, would advise integrity as we are not likely to find a suitable group (but if you do, have fun!)

    • Life feels reactive, but it is actually predictive. All day long, you are making your best guess of how to act given what you’ve just seen and what has worked for you in the past. You are endlessly predicting what will happen in the next moment.
      Our behavior is heavily dependent on these predictions. Put another way, our behavior is heavily dependent on how we interpret the events that happen to us, not necessarily the objective reality of the events themselves.

    • You can make hard habits more attractive if you can learn to associate them with a positive experience. Sometimes, all you need is a slight mind-set shift. For instance, we often talk about everything we have to do in a given day. You have to wake up early for work. You have to make another sales call for your business. You have to cook dinner for your family.
      Now, imagine changing just one word: You don’t “have” to. You “get” to.
      You get to wake up early for work. You get to make another sales call for your business. You get to cook dinner for your family. By simply changing one word, you shift the way you view each event. You transition from seeing these behaviors as burdens and turn them into opportunities.
      The key point is that both versions of reality are true. You have to do those things, and you also get to do them. We can find evidence for whatever mind-set we choose.

    • when starting a habit, consistently do two minutes of a simplified habit each time, then move on to something else. by making it easy to do a simple task of only two minutes duration, it makes it easier to build a routine of doing that habit. later on, once the habit is established, we can start expanding it it

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• never the end
  橋本舞子

00907

• it's a shame we can not fit into groups, even though we love the people in them. the rules people use to organise their relationships don't make sense when applied to people who have moved beyond those rules. yes this is a similar argument to one which tyrants and abusers use, but it doesn't mean it is not true sometimes. rules can be a strength but they can also be a weakness. they can help enforce useful norms but they can also be used to enforce abusive norms.

00807

00707

• is falsity the default state? heuristics and biases are resource–lean at point–of–use, though in the longer term they may not be.

00607

00507

• σύςτημα
  ‎(sústēma, systems)

  • because we all use habits, it is wise to
    • review them occasionally
    • change them when circumstance requires
    • apply them accurately
    • if we do not do these things, then our habits will rule our lives rather than guide us
  • people are bound by their certainties. whether we call these certainties genes, traumas, cultures, beliefs, habits, truths, values, institutions, addictions, systems, stasis, civilisations — as long as they are certainties, they bind us.
    • our habits of mind, the questions we ask ourselves and the answers we think are acceptable, these are the spells which bind us.
  • From Ancient Greek σύστημα ‎(sústēma, “organised whole, body”), from σύν ‎(sún, “with, together”) + ἵστημι ‎(hístēmi, “I stand”) wiktionary
  • our values and beliefs not only define us and rule us — they also trap, bind, and strangle us.
    • like shooting the messenger, most people are trapped in their patterns of behaviour.
  • one–and–only–truths…
    • how lies become “truth” — truth that purports to be the one–and–only–truth is a vile, evil lie.
  • most people think in shorthand almost all the time. i am no different, just a little more aware that i should try to change my habits of thought. and that maybe eventually this will make a little difference.
  • what we can see is only sometimes the solution to our problem. the idea of science is to try to observe the rare occurrences, to try to create theories that can show the patterns of behaviour in the world.
    • this applies to all fields of knowledge, whether it is computing, medicine, psychology or any other field where a nonexpert might think what the experts do is a black art.
  • rituals of connection
    • saying how we are the same, saying how this is true. but actually we are different yet the same, this is not always true but often is true.
      • rituals to invoke a special significance
  • architecture
    on the way we place our artefacts in relation to our living processes.

00407

• we live by rules that are meant to represent reality, but these rules are at times too far from reality — obstructing rather than helping us.

00307

• in our youth we weave our stories, the ones we rely on for the rest of our lives. we do learn new stories and relearn stories but it seems to become less simple to do as we grow older.

00207

00107

• since we all have habits with unintended consequences, even with the best of intentions and preparation it becomes a question of chance whether the habits one has have an effect on another person or process; for example if our prejudices get in the way of relating well with someone, or how much damage we cause the earth in the course of our everyday activities, or whether we appreciate someone or some process as they truly are rather than through just our limited and perhaps inaccurate perception of them.

00007

• nitrogen N (νίτρον nitron, “sodium carbonate” –γενής –genes, producer)
• ή
  • Η, eta
• reika chang
  • singing never the end in tokyo dome
  • engagement ring
• OG
• http link back to 00100